Baseball Perspectives

Blogger No More

2006-03-20T12:28:00.000-08:00

Blogger had me blocked from posting for 3 days under suspicion of this being some kind of spam blog. This is why I had nothing to offer about the semi-final games.

Since I was already annoyed by Blogger's poor service and getting ready to revamp the blog I went ahead and did that this weekend. This blog has been renamed The Baseball Review and moved to www.baseball-review.com as well, it should be up and running there by the end of the day. I will also be adding daily content soon to go with the new look and name.

USA Preparation

2006-03-17T14:41:00.000-08:00

A-Rod suggests that Team USA should spend a few weeks at a training camp together before the 2009 WBC. The rest of the team seems to agree. This is great news for the future of the tournament. The USA players want to win next time; they recognize it as a legitimate competition and they are willing to bust their butts to win it.

I think they should also play some exhibition games against MLB training squads, too. And don’t be surprised if, by the fourth or fifth iteration, they are playing in other tournaments just to warm up for the Classic.

WBC Preview: Semifinals

2006-03-17T10:24:00.000-08:00

The tournament is arranged so that each of the semifinals games is a rematch from the Round 2 pools. This is the last chance for each team to play its best strategy to beat the other.

Japan came into the tournament looking to assert its dominance over Korean and Taiwanese baseball. They had quick success with the Taiwanese part, but they have lost to the Koreans twice now, both in close games and largely thanks to the top-notch Korean pitching. So Japan is going to need their bats working tomorrow if they want to make the final game. Korea just needs to play like they have been.

The powerful Dominican Republic lineup has had its own offensive troubles through most of the tournament. The one time the bats did get going in Round 2, however, was against Cuba. Cuba also committed 2 errors in that game and walked 8 batters. They had similar troubles against Puerto Rico in the first round, but showed more control in the rematch. They will need to have another turn around and shut down the Dominican bats to move on.

Asian Baseball fans, I think, have to be rooting for the Dominican Republic to make the finals along with Korea or Japan. That result would again put the MLB stars up against the KBO and/or Nippon Baseball stars. A tournament win under those conditions would garner a little more respect for the Japanese Major Leagues than a win over Cuba would. Either way an Asian tournament win would be a major victory.

Anti-Doping

2006-03-17T09:41:00.000-08:00

The World Anti-Doping Agency is threatening to fail the WBC's testing policy. They originally brought this up a couple of days ago and have been making a steady stream of noise since then. There is a rebuttal here, accusing the WADA official of making his statements without an understanding of the facts and targeting them frivolously at MLB instead of the organization in charge of testing, the International Baseball Federation.

The more I read about this, the more I think it is a ridiculous power struggle. Apparently an incomplete list of banned substances was sent to athletes at some point. The appropriate response, I think, when the WADA learns of a mistake like this would be to make sure that a correct list is sent out ASAP. Instead we get public news items and threats against Baseball’s Olympic reinstatement. A correct list, however, was sent out and none of the athletes have tested positive for any of the substances (the WADA hasn’t issued any complaints about the actual testing). Seems like the WADA is just making a play to take over testing for this tournament.

USA @ Mexico

2006-03-16T16:19:00.000-08:00

An elimination game for USA. If they lose, giving up 2 or more runs in the process, Japan will advance in their place. American fans are looking for a South Africa type game. If they don't score early they will be on shaky ground.

Clemens will start for USA against Mexico'a Oliver Perez...

I tried to blog the game but, alas, Blogger was down for most of the game and would not update.

USA is out, Japan is in. The US sluggers couldn't figure out how to hit in the entire tournament. Anytime they were facing someone who was throwing anything better than batting practice they just couldn't get the bats going. If they were a ton better than these other teams, it wouldn't have been a problem, but these guys were good and the US didn't play well enough to beat good teams. I suspect they will make a better show in 2009.

This blog will be moving sometime next week to someone who can prevent the problems I have been experiencing with Blogger over the last few weeks. I will give you details when I have them. I won't move it completely until the tournament is over, so this is still the place for updates...

Korean Military Exemption

2006-03-16T11:32:00.000-08:00

This story has been circulating since before the first game of the tournament. These important facts, however, seem to have been ignored by the baseball writers:

A total of 11 players out of a 30-member roster in the Classic, including Choi Hee-seop of the Dodgers, Kim Sun-woo of the Colorado Rockies and Bong Jung-keun of the Cincinnati Reds have yet to complete their mandatory military service.

I'm not sure whether any of these players had intended on going back to Korea to serve or whether they were all going to dodge the draft. Either way I am suprised no one thought it enough of a story to mention in game commentary. I had assumed that the MLB players had all done their service before leaving Korea.

The Witch Hunt Continues...

2006-03-16T10:31:00.000-08:00

Yahoo sports columnist Jeff Passan is a bit behind the times jumping on the anti-Bonds bandwagon this late. The article is over-the-top, all around, (some guys are publishing a book, now we have proof)... but this paragraph stood out as particularly silly:

The damage is evident. Bonds can pass Ruth and Hank Aaron -- even break his own single-season record of 73 home runs -- and it would register as an accomplishment where, exactly? Barry's world, because it's the only place that will bother to recognize him.

Really Jeff? Because I think a career year from Bonds at 42 in a league that administers regular steroid tests would push a lot of interesting questions to the foreground. I think a lot of people who currently have Bonds pinned as evil incarnate would be questioning not only whether he took the drugs but, assuming he did, whether they could have possibly helped him.

Korea @ Japan

2006-03-15T19:12:00.000-08:00

This is a very important game to the outcome of this tournament and to Asian baseball in general...

Wantanabe is the pitcher for Japan... Japan is through the first inning clean... the longer this goes scoreless the worse for the USA...

Korea is pitching Chan Ho Park... Ichiro has a leadoff hit... I don't know about the decision to start Park. They might get a couple of good innings out of him but he tends to blow up. Or at least he did when he played in the US... a ground out moves Ichiro to second... Fukudome struck out... and Matsunaka hit a chopper to third for the third out...

The US wants Korea to score now... a walk and a hit, Korea is threatening... the #9 batter Kim struck out...

Japan has a hit off of Chan Ho Park's glove to lead off the second... 2 down now, runner has moved to second... Japan has a hit but is caught trying to score for the third out...

Korea goes down in order in the 3rd... still scoreless, USA is sweating bullets...

Japan retires in order, including an Ichiro strikeout...

Korea is down in order...

Another strikeout to leadoff the bottom side of the fourth. This is turning into a pitcher's duel, just what the US was hoping to avoid... Matsunaka has a single, then they hit into a double play...

Korea is down in order again in the top of the 5th...

Japan is also down in order. Going into the 6th inning now and both pitchers are rolling. They are both at about 65 pitches...

Nothing for Korea again...

Japan has a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 6th and Ichrio bunts the runner to second. 1 out... A groundout fails to move the runner to third, 2 down... Byuyn-Hyun Kim is replacing Park on the mound... Kim walks one and grounds Matsunaka out to end the inning... Japan's offense is working better than that of Korea so far, in a low scoring game that isn't good for the Americans at all...

Going into the 7th inning... Japan is putting Sugiuchi on the mound now... he walks the leadoff man, this is Korea's chance to get ahead... they bunt the runner to second, 1 out... Sugiuchi keeps it under control and the game stays scoreless...

Japan also goes down in order... With the game scoreless this late it starts to become possible that we will see a tie game here. If the game is tied after 14 innings it will be ruled a tie-game, that would put the US above Japan (assuming a victory over Mexico)...

Korea has a 1 out walk in the 8th... now they have a hit and the runner rounds second. He was bet by the throw by 10 feet but the tag is dropped and he is safe. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, now... this is Korea's chance. Japan is changing pitchers... that was Koreas 2nd hit of the game... Fujikawa is the pitcher now... he gives up a double, 2 runs score and the batter is hosed going to third... 2 outs, a flyball leads the third out... 2-0...

Japan's turn in the bottom of the 8th... 1 out, Korea is putting in Dae-Sung Koo to pitch... Japan is down in order... they will have 1 more chance in the 9th... the 2, 3 and 4 hitters will bat...

Otsuka is pitching for Japan now... Otsuka has them in order in the 9th...

If Japan doesn't score 2 runs in the 9th the US will have its fate in their own hands... Japan has a leadoff homerun, that was Nishioka... Matsunaka has a single with one out... Korea is changing pitchers. Japan is putting in a pinch runner and pinch hitting for Imae... strikeout... and another. Game Over.

Japan is done unless the US loses to Mexico tomorrow and gives up at least two runs the the process. Korea, however, is through to the semi-finals.

Cuba @ Puerto Rico

2006-03-15T15:00:00.000-08:00

This is the last Pool 2 game. The winner will move to the semi-finals for a rematch against the Dominican team on Saturday. Puerto Rico won the last match-up handily but the Cubans have put forth a much stronger effort since then.

Puerto Rico will be starting Dicky Gonzalez and Cuba will put Ormari Romero on the mound. Romero has thrown 4 scoreless innings and has struck out 5 batters so far in the Classic.

The game starts at 7:00 EST and will not be on TV...

Gonzalez pitched in Japan last year... he walks the Cuban leadoff man... Paret is looking to steal off of Pudge right away... he runs a few times, but the pitches are fouled off... now they are pitching out. This is amazing play, there hasn't been an out yet and they are already making regular pickoff attempts and pitchouts... Paret finally took second. The throw was there in time but was taken on a hop and the SS couldn't control it... a walk now, those pitchouts had a big impact there... a nine pitch at bat ends in a ground out but advances the runners on the hit-and-run... 1 run scores on another ground out... Gonzalez issues a walk, runners on the corners now... the inning is finally over, Gonzalez threw over 30 pitches but gave up only 1 run...

Bernie Williams has a leadoff homerun to tie up the game... he worked the count to 3-0, got an easy pitch to hit and turned on it... Romero got the rest of them but we have a new ballgame...

Gonzalez struck out the leadoff man, but gave up a hit to the second batter... and another, Cuba is threatening again with 1 down... Gonzalez took down Cuba's #1 and 2 batters to get out of the inning safely. He has now thrown over 50 pitches, at this rate he might get 1 or two more innings. I don't know if Puerto Rico will want him in that long...

Valentin has a 2 out hit... Valentin was hosed stealing but the SS (Paret) missed the tag so he is safe... Now the announcers are talking about how great the umpires have been in the Classic, it is good to hear that, many seem to think they are terrible... Romero is out of the inning, still 1-1...

That was a quicker inning for Gonzalez, 1-2-3. He has now thrown 60 pitches. The game has settled quite a bit since that wild first inning. I think that is good for Puerto Rico...

Bernie Williams has his second hit of the game with one out in the third inning... he got caught in a rundown after a botched hit-and-run. 2 down... the announcer says "off the top of my head," Bernie Williams stole about 15-17 bases a year at his peak. If that was off the top of his head it was pretty good. Williams stole 15 or more 4 times, 17 was his career high... Pudge lined out. Inning over, still 1-1...

Cuba's Urrutia has a leadoff hit... Garlobo has a 2nd hit, right down the 3rd baseline, 1st and 2nd, none out... Cora made a nice play to knock down that ground ball and keep it in the infield, save a run and pick up an out a first base. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out... Gonzalez pitched around Rameriez, Puerto Rico is looking for the double play here... they are changing Gonzalez out for Santiagio... Santiago was ejected for plugging a Cuban batter in his last appearence... A hit by pitch drives in the go-ahead run... they get the force at home on a ground ball rather than try the double play... Cintron fielded the ground ball and rushed the throw to second throwing it past Cora to let 2 more runs score. They give Cintron the error... a flyball makes the third out. 4-1 Cuba...

I took a little break and missed a few innings...

Came back to see that Cuba's manager is ejected and that Puerto Rico has scored a run to make it 4-2... they have runners on first and third... Beltran has a hit to score one, third out is made ag home. 4-3 Cuba...

Cuba didn't tack on any more in the 8th...

Puerto Rico has a runner with 1 out in the 8th... Carlos Delgado came in for his first at-bat of the tournament and got a hit on the first pitch... the tieing run is now in scoring position with 1 down... Jose Valentin is on base to load them up after a bobbled ball at first... ruled an error... Cintron had a chance to tie it up but hit into a double play... Going into the ninth now...

Cuba leaves it a 1 run game going int the bottom of the ninth... pressure is on...

Pudge made the final out on a strikeout... Game Over.

Cuba is through to the next round, Puerto Rico is out. So Cuba will face the Dominican Republic on Saturday, playing for a trip to the final game.

Public Support

2006-03-15T09:45:00.000-08:00

Tom Verducci has nice things to say about the World Baseball Classic.

TV Coverage

2006-03-15T09:17:00.000-08:00

Korea and Japan play tonight. The game decides which of those two teams will advance--since they both gave up the same number of runs to USA. It also decides whether USA itself has a chance to advance. To American viewers this has to be the most important game this round. As of now, ESPN does not plan to air the game live.

A similar problem exists with tonight's other game, an all-or-nothing rematch between Cuba and Puerto Rico. This game will not be aired, even on tape-delay.

When it comes time to figure out TV contracts for the tournament in 2009--I assume they aren't already given to ESPN?--MLB should remember this. They need to make ESPN agree to air every game from round 2 and after on a major station (ESPN or ESPN2)... If ESPN can't agree to this, they should license out each game seperately to someone who will show it.

More Bonds

2006-03-14T23:49:00.000-08:00

Griffey says Bonds is clean, despite anecdotes that Bonds had declared his intention to start using roids directly to Griffey.

"He works hard," Griffey said. "I've got cousins who work in gyms. All they do is lift weights and they make Barry look small. When you go in the gym and give 100 percent, you're bound to see results. That's the way things work. I have to do it with rehab -- give 100 percent in rehab to get back on the field."

I don't know whether Griffey belives this, but I think he has a point. I, for one, have a hard time taking the he-must-use-roids-look-at-him arguments. Whatever other evidence we might use to document Bonds' drug use may or may not be valid but "he's buff" or even "gee he got buff quick" just doesn't cut it.

I think Bonds is largely a scapegoat, it is better for everyone involved to target him than to look to the real issue--which is that MLB had no rules prohibiting steroid use until 2002. MLB was neglectful of this issue and they are going to launch an investigation of Bonds so that they can pretend like this is his fault alone. I don't buy it.

Japan @ Mexico

2006-03-14T16:01:00.000-08:00

The loser of this game will be effectively knocked out of the tournament, the winner will hang on to a chance to advance. If Japan wins they will need to beat Korea to advance. If Mexico wins they will need to win against the US...

More interesting, perhaps, should Japan win this game and beat Korea, the US will be involved in another runs-allowed tie-break. The runs scored in this game, however, won't count toward that so this is purely win/lose...

Esteban Loaiza is starting for Mexico... Japan is down in order...

Daisuke Matsuzaka is the Japanese pitcher... He is supposed to be the best pitcher in Japan, possible Gyroball today... Jorge Cantu, who has represented much of Mexico's offense in the tournament, has the first hit of the game with 1 out... Matsuzaka is out of the inning cleanly, nothing that looks like a Gyroball though...

Matsunaka, who I told you to watch before the tournament started, walked... Iwamura has a line drive single... Tamura is looking to bunt Matsunaka to third... he lays it down but they have a 2-6-3 double play. Tamura thought it was foul and didn't run until late...

Mexico has another runner on a 1 out walk... the runner is caught in a rundown and the throw back to first hits him and rolls into the dugout. Runner moves to third with one out... Matsuzaka gets a strikeout, 2 down... the run doesn't score. 0-0 after 2 innings...

Satozaki has a leadoff hit... they are looking to bunt again... Kawasaki is swinging away at the second pitch and has a single to bring Ichiro up... Ichiro lays down the bunt and moves the runners to 2nd and 3rd with one out... ground ball and the runner on third is out in a rundown. 1st and 3rd with 2 down... ground out still no score...

Matsuzaka got them in order. 47 pitches in three innings, 2 strikeouts...

Matsunaka has a leadoff hit... still scoreless, but Japan's offense has been much more successful so far... a walk puts them on 1st and 2nd, they bunt them to 2nd and 3rd... a 2 run single. The bunt paid off that time... Homerun, 4-0 Japan... that was Satozaki, the catcher... Ichiro has a 2 out single but they leave him at first...

Matsuzaka got them in order again. He is now at 58 pitches through 4 innings...

New pitcher Reyes for Mexico... Fukudome beats out an infield hit... another hit but Fukudome is hosed trying for third... the announcers say that with a 4 run lead Japan can afford to be more aggressive. I would have sat tight at second, looking for a big inning instead of the 1 run that getting to third allows... a near double play is thrown away, runner at 2nd, 2 out... Iwamura steals third and scores on a single... strikeout, inning over, 5-0 Japan...

Matsuzaka issues his second walk of the day with one out in the 5th... a well-turned double play leaves them empty again...

Japan goes down in order... going into the bottom of the 6th now...

Japan is changing pitchers, putting in Wada... Juan Castro has a leadoff single... Wada takes down Cantu and Castilla to leave it at 5-0...

Japan is down in order again...

Mexico is running out of time... Going into the 8th now...

Mexico has a solo-shot in the 8th... 5-1 going into the 9th inning...

Japan's leadoff man singles and the 9 batter Kawasaki is trying to bunt for a hit but fails. He advances the runner to 2nd though, bringing up Ichiro... Ichiro has a base hit and it is bobbled in right field to score the run and move Ichiro to 2nd... a walk has runners on 1st and 2nd now... a flyball makes the 2nd out... going into the bottom of the 9th, 6-1 Japan...

Japan is putting in Otsuka to close... he walks the leadoff, a bobbled potential double-play has runners on 1st and 2nd with none down for Japan... a flyball and a double-play end the game. 6-1 Japan.

So now the US needs Japan to lose to Korea or score more than 7 runs in a victory. That game is tomorrow at 10:00 PM EST.

The Mexicans cannot advance now. There would be a tiebreak if they beat the US and Japan loses to Korea but Mexico has already given up too many runs to allow their advancment. Japan has played both relevant games already giving up only 5 runs, Mexico has already given up 6. For the US to advance in that kind of tiebreak they would need to allow less than 2 earned runs to Mexico and not more than 2 total.

Venezuela @ Dominican Republic

2006-03-14T15:41:00.000-08:00

This is an all or nothing game, the winner will advance and the loser will not...

Cabrera will start for the Dominican Republic... Venezuela is down in order. They are going to want to score early and often to keep ahead of the Dominican offense...

Freddy Garcia is the Venezuelan pitcher... the DR has a leadoff hit... Tejada has a double, now on 2nd and 3rd with none out... they walked Ortiz intentionally to get to Beltre who has 4 homeruns on the tournament... Beltre hits a lineout to right... Alou has an infield hit on a dribbling ground ball... inning over. 1 run doesn't hurt the Venezuelans too bad but they need to score ASAP or they will lose...

Venezuela has a baserunner on a Cabrera leadoff walk... they leave him at first base...

The Dominicans don't do anything there despite a single, still 1-0 going into the 3rd...

Chavez hit a deep drive but it didn't quite make it... still 1-0... the rain is getting bad...

Ortiz is on base after a fielding error, 1 out... they leave him there... the Dominican bats are very quiet so far...

Venezuela doesn't score again in the top of 4... they have struckout 7 times already in this game...

1-0 going into the 5th...

Francisco Liriano is pitching for the Dominicans now... he is young and hard throwing but gave up 19 hits and walked 7 in just over 20 innings last year in the majors... he walks the leadoff man... Liriano gets through the inning with nothing hurt...

Garcia is coming out of the game too, Escobar will replace him... He brings them down in order...

Liriano issued another leadoff walk... Vizquel has a 1 out double to put runners on 2nd and 3rd... Bobby Abreu grounds out scoring the run and moving Vizquel to third with 2 down, tie game... Venezuela needs to score this second run and go ahead here... they don't. 1-1...

Escobar takes down the Ortiz/Beltre part of the lineup in order...

This is really turning into a great game, tied going into the 7th in a must-win game for both teams... these are the kinds of situations that you only see in tournament-style play, it will be October before you see anything like this again...

Guillien walked with 2 outs in the 7th... DR is changing pitchers... Bautista got the out...

Alberto Castillo has a 1-out single for the DR... Castillo steals 2nd and a single moves hm to third with 2 out... Tejada walks... a past ball scores the go aghead run... they get Pujols and it is 2-1 DR going into the 8th...

Torres is pitching the 8th for DR... he gets the Venezuelans in order...

Escobar walked Ortiz... Escobar is coming out for Jorge Julio and Reyes is coming in to run for Ortiz... Reyes stole 2nd, then Beltre got out... Reyes now stole 3rd base... Alou lined out... a shallow flyball is the third out...

Torres is coming out for Sanchez in the 9th inning... the Venezuelans need to score a run here or they are done for the tournament... a walk with 2 down puts the winning run at the plate... an error on a ground ball to SS puts the winning run on base and the tieing in scoring position... they walk the bases loaded... They fly him out... Game Over.

The DR andvances, the Venezuealans do not.

Supporting the 'Witch Hunt' Theory

2006-03-14T12:37:00.000-08:00

Clemens says that media coverage of the so-called 'Balco' Barry is a witch hunt. These guys (here and here) seem to agree. They bring up valid points that have been ignored in the coverage of Bonds despite being important and obvious. Read them.

Meanwhile, Bob Feller adds to the flood of keep-him-out-of-the-Hall-and-strike-his-records news.

Gyroball

2006-03-14T11:18:00.000-08:00

Pinto has a couple of links to Gyroball info.

I mentioned that Daisuke Matsuzaka was supposed to be throwing one when I liveblogged his start last week, he apparently says he wasn't. He does say, however that he might throw a few against Mexico tonight.

On Last Night's Loss

2006-03-14T11:16:00.000-08:00

I have noticed that a common response from fans in the US to last night’s loss to Korea is outrage. People seem to think that a loss to Korea is a disgrace to American baseball.

Let us understand something, the loss to Canada was a disgrace. In that game the US players were falling all over themselves from the start. It was a bad game, we blew it. The loss to Korea was hardly similar. We played poorly, to be sure, but we did so largely because we were getting drubbed by the Koreans, not the other way around. The errors came late, after the 6-1 deficit. We should have hit more, yes, and we would likely do so if we played them again but pitching was always supposed to be Korea’s strength. It is not all that surprising that we had a little trouble hitting.

We did lose control late in the game, giving up in about the 5^th or 6^th inning when we were down 6-1. That was a mistake since our offense is potent enough to make up a 5 run deficit easily, but it is understandable to be flustered when you are getting beat outright by a team you expected to be easily better than.

Stop your whining about what poor representation of American baseball we are getting. Isn’t it possible that maybe, just maybe, these guys are good?

USA @ Korea

2006-03-13T18:58:00.000-08:00

A win here would be the second for either of these team, making it very probable that they would make the next round.

More importantly, perhaps, this game is another clash between the Asian players and the MLB. The Asians have faired pretty well so far, Korea beating Mexico and Japan only just losing to the US yesterday.

Willis is pitching again tonight. He started the loss against Canada and will be looking to redeem himself...

Vernon Wells walks on four pitches... Jeter hits a dribbler out of the infield, 1st and 2nd with none out. Looking for an early lead here... Griffey hit a deep warning track fly ball moving Wells to third... A-Rod poped out to the infield... Chipper Jones walks to load them up... Veritek is up now, he already has one grandslam in the tournament... Strike out. The US is threatening in the first, but got nothing...

Willis isn't starting out very well, walking the leadoff man with a handful of wild pitches... he induces the double play... a homerun to Seung-Yeop Lee, his 5th in the tournament... 1-0 Korea... he walked one and gave up two hits to score a second run... got the third out finally. 2-0 Korea...

Willis struck out two in the second and managed not to give up any runs...

Griffey hit a solo-shot in the third...

Another run for the Koreans...

US is threatening again with a few walks... another walk loads them up but none score on a bunch of strikeouts...

Dan Wheeler is pitching now... he gave up a 2 out double and walked Seung Yeop Lee... Hee Seop Choi hit a homerun making it 6-1...

5th inning... the US keeps putting runners on base (mostly with walks) and they keep striking out, getting shut down by the Koreans before any runs score. That time it was a walk and a hit, followed by a double-play to end the inning... The Koreans are also throwing their 4th pitcher of the night so far...

Wheeler is back for the 5th inning... he struck out the side...

The US went down in order in the 6th...

Korea picked up another run in the 6th on a walk, a hit and couple of bad plays by Utley...

The United States needs to score a few extra runs here, even if they don't win, to make it more likely that they advance...

Jeter just fielded an easy ground ball and one-hopped the throw from second base. We can't do anything right anymore...

They picked up a couple of runs in the ninth, and that could be important... 7-3 Korea... Game Over.

If Japan wins out now there will be a three way tie, just as there was in round 1. The US has played their games against the potentially tied teams and given up 10 runs. Korea and Japan still have to play each other, Korea has given up three runs and Japan has given up four. We are already assuming that Japan wins that game (since that is the only way there can be a tie) so we will need Japan to score at least 7 runs (all earned).

This is all assuming that Mexico doesn't win a game (against Japan or the US) and that Japan beats Korea. This round could get interesting...

Cleaning Up

2006-03-13T17:36:00.000-08:00

ESPN reports that over 200 drug tests have been taken for the World Baseball Classic with no positive results. I take this to mean that testing is more important than punishment in the solution to the drug problem in sports. It is amazing how little people will try to get away with when they are sure to be caught.

Of course, this is all assuming that the tests succeed at detecting the drugs. If they don't, we have a problem.

via Pinto.

Venezuela @ Puerto Rico

2006-03-13T17:01:00.000-08:00

If Venezuela wins this game than the last two games in Pool 2--the first round rematches--will be all-or-nothing. If Puerto Rico wins than they will likely advance and Venezuela will likely not.

Piniero is pitching for Puerto Rico... he walked one and threw 18 pitches but looked okay on the whole getting through the first inning...

Venezeula is starting Carlos Zambrano... Pudge has a single the other way... the announcers just gave a hitting lesson based on Pudge's hit. "Throw the knob of the bat at the ball... they said. I bet these guys had a good laugh... Zambrano walks one. 1st and 2nd, two out... Cruz Jr. struck out looking...

Piniero gave up a walk and a Ramon Hernandez hit, runners on first and second with none out in the second inning... Javy Lopez, at first base instead of catcher, made a nice catch in foul territory... Piniero induces the double play. He continues to struggle a bit, but has managed not to let it cost any runs so far...

Zambrano strikes out Rios and Valentin and induces the popup from Cintron to retire time in order... he has thrown 41 pitches so far...

Piniero moving a little quicker that inning. One hit, but nothing hurt. He has now thrown 44 pitches...

Zambrano walks Cora, but Cora is quickly caught stealing... Pudge has a 2nd hit, but again they leave him on base...

Piniero gets them in order again including a strikeout against Miguel Cabrera...

Score still 2-0 going into the 8th... the Puerto Ricans have treatened a few times but haven't managed to score yet...

Both pitchers are rolling now. Zambrano took out Puerto Rico in order, striking out Rios... going into the 5th inning...

Chavez hit a 2-run bomb off of Piniero to take the lead... he issues a walk and is coming out of the game... Pedro Feliciano, who has been playing in Japan, replaces Piniero... he gets Bobby Abreu to pop out to end the inning...

Puerto Rico had runners on 1st and 3rd with none out. They laid down a bunt but the runner at second is forced out and Valentin at third got caught off the bag. He looked safe coming back in but was called out... inning over...

Baez, the new pitcher for Puerto Rico, got through that inning clean...

Puerto Rico had a couple of hits in the 6th, but couldn't score... still 2-0...

Victor Martinez hit a grand slam in the 8th, forget about this one...

Dominican Republic @ Cuba

2006-03-13T09:50:00.000-08:00

The Dominican powerhouse offense was shut down by the Puerto Rican pitching last night. A loss to Cuba today would almost certianly eliminate them from the tournament and would make Cuba sure to advance.

The game is on ESPN at 2:00 EST. I will liveblog it here...

The Dominicans have two outs in the first inning and the Cubans throw up and in on Pujols hitting him. They are playing a big infield shift to the right side against Ortiz. He grounds out...

Odalis Perez is pitching for the Dominican team... he gives up a leadoff hit. Perez needs to give the Dominicans enough good innings for them to take a big lead. As soon as the bullpen enters the game the Cubans should start scoring very quickly... Double-play... the defense on the left side of the field is having trouble seeing the ball. Beltre lost track of a line drive for the first hit and Alou failed to track down an easy fly ball for another. 1 on, 2 out... Now Perez walks one... safely out of the inning...

A quick whole inning, both sides went down in order...

The Dominicans have a baserunner in the 3rd inning after a walk... a hit puts runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out... a big double by Tejada scores both runners. Cuba is changing pitchers. The Dominican team needs to take advantage of this and pick up at least one more run here. If they can build enough of a lead they should be able to hold on despite the shaky bullpen... an error on a ground ball with two outs causes two more runs to score. That was a big play...

Cuba got another baserunner in the third but hit into another double-play and left the bases empty. 4-0 Dominican Republic...

D.R. has a double and a single in the 4th to put in another run... still only 1 out... strike-em-out throw-em-out double-play... the bats have really started up now, the Dominicans have space to let their weak bullpen work now...

There has been some kind of scene in the stands with security removing some guy with a "down with Fidel" sign... it got loud for a minute but is settled down now...

Ortiz hit a long homerun... 6-0 now...

The Dominican manager says Perez will come out after the 5th inning. That should be enough from him with the lead they have now... he ends up coming out with 2 down... Jorge Sosa is the new pitcher. He is through the inning quickly...

Cuba gives up a walk and a double. They are changing pitchers... the new pitcher (Cuba's 4th on the day) got two outs, including one on a play at home, but walked one to load the bases... they are changing him out... they walk Ortiz putting in another run and Alou grounds out. 7-0...

Cuba can't get any help... they finally got another baserunner in the 6th and hit into another double-play, this one on a line drive...

With 2 outs in the 7th Paulino hit a deep drive off the wall. He thought it was gone and was trotting around first base, he got hosed at 2nd... still 7-0...

Cuba picked up their first run with a no-out bomb to left-center field. Sosa served that ball on a platter... an out and a base hit. Cuba needs to turn this into a big inning if they are going to have any chance at a comeback... a double has runners on 2nd and third. Sosa is not throwing well at all right now. There are some guys throwing in the bullpen but they are leaving him in for now... Sosa gets the 2nd out and walks them loaded, now they will pull him out... the new pitcher Sanchez gets the strikeout to end the inning...

The commentators are discussing David Ortiz, suggesting that he might be kept out of the Hall of Fame solely because he is a DH. Though Ortiz was very nearly the AL-MVP last year, I don’t think his career even merits discussion of a possible induction at this point. He is not exactly in the kind of shape that suggests he would have more than a couple more good years either… we are going into the bottom of the 8th now. Still, 7-1...

Cuba doesn't score in the 8th. One more chance...

In the 9th Cuba has a pair of leadoff walks... 1 out, a linedrive that should have been caught in right field (error charged) scores a run... another hit, another run... pitching change... Fernando Rodney strikes one out... and walks one, bases-loaded, a grand-slam would tie the game... struck him out. Game Over...

Now the Dominican Republic has to play Venezuela to try to advance. Cuba will play Puerto Rico (who they lost to by a cozy margin in the last round).

Mexico @ Korea

2006-03-12T20:11:00.000-08:00

Another Asia/America matchup. The Japanese kept up with the USA team well today, losing in the ninth. Let's see how the Koreans do with the Mexico team...

Rodrigo Lopez is pitching for Mexico...

In the first inning Seung-Yeop Lee, the same one who hit 3 bombs in the first round, hit a 2 run shot. 2-0 Korea...

3rd inning, Luis A. Garcia hit a solo shot for Mexico... 2-1...

Going into the sixth inning, still 2-1...

Pitchers duel into the ninth inning... still 2-1. Castilla has off of Chan-Ho Park, who is closing for Korea. A ground out and a past ball move his pinch-runner to third base but Park manages a K to end the game.

Korea maintained a team 1.00 ERA for the tournament so far. Their pitching has been stellar and Lee (Seung-Yeop, he is one of 5 Lee's on the starting lineup) has given the offense enough of a boost to keep them undefeated.

The Asian teams look very good so far, they should be happy with the performance. Don't be surprised to see either Korea or Japan (whichever of the two wins their head-to-head match-up) make the trip to the second round with the US. Korea plays America tomorrow night. It should be interesting.

Puerto Rico @ Dominican Republic

2006-03-12T16:35:00.000-08:00

The Dominican Republic should be the favorite here, but Puerto Rico is not far behind. The Dominican team's lack of pitching could start to standout more now that the pitch limit is up to 85, it will be interesting to see if this costs them.

Bartolo Colon is making the start for the Dominican team... Pudge Rodriguez has a "double" on a flyball to right that should have been scored and error. He is on 2nd with 1 out... a flyout moves him to third with 2 outs... Beltre makes a nice play on a tough hop at third to strand him...

Beltre hit a homerun in the bottom of the 2nd... 1-0 Dominican Republic...

In the top of the 4th Puerto Rico tied it up on a pair of doubles. A groundout moved the runner to third with one out... a walk puts runners on 1st and 3rd. Colon is starting to struggle, if he has to come out of the game this early it will be tough on the Dominicans to finish up the game. The Puerto Ricans need to turn this into a big inning... Colon gets out of the inning with just the one run allowed. They will need another good inning or two from him unless the offense gets going. He is up to about 60 pitches...

Colon is out in the 6th... the new pitcher issues a leadoff walk... a double puts runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out, that is the second double for Lopez... Cruz has a hit to score 2... another hit scores Cruz... 4-1...

7th inning, a hard hit ball by Beltran (he got on with an error) and another hit by Lopez and the Puerto Ricans are threatening again... yet another hit scores 1... and 2 more. Now 7-1... That was a big inning, the Dominican team is going to score runs eventually, the wide lead gives Puerto Rico a much better chance of holding on...

A lot of wierd play , including 2 hits and a walk, puts runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs for the Dominicans... they don't end up scoring any... still 7-1...

Still 7-1 going into the top of the 9th... if the Dominicans lose this game, as it looks like they will, both them and the Venezuelans will be 1 loss away from almost sure elimination. They still have to play each other on tuesday...

Game Over. The Dominican team couldn't come up with the offense against some impressive Puerto Rican pitching... now they will have to win out.

Japan @ USA

2006-03-12T13:09:00.000-08:00

Ichiro has a leadoff homerun off of Jake Peavy... 1-0 Japan...

I am leaving for about an hour now... I expect that the US will be scoring at least 5 runs or so in this game, pitching shouldn't be the issue...

The US just broke a 3-3 tie in the bottom of the ninth inning with a bases-loaded single. The Japanese hit a sac-fly in the 8th and scored but it was called back on appeal to third that the runner left early. He didn't. Some will be upset about that, to be sure. I'm not sure it matters, the single in the ninth was a two run single if it needed to be. Whether it would have happened the same in a 4-3 game, I don't know... that is just how the game goes down.

The Japanese proved themselves on the level with the USA team, though. This was a big game for international baseball.

Japan now needs to beat both the Koreans and the Mexicans if they want to advance.

Cuba @ Venezuela

2006-03-12T09:35:00.000-08:00

Venezuela's pitching has been top-notch and their lineup is stacked with major leaguers. The Cubans have proven to be one of the best hitting teams in the tournament so far.

The game gets underway in about 20 minutes...

Johan Santana, pitching for Venezuela, is through the first inning in order...

The Cuban pitcher Marti struggled a bit in the first, he went 3-2 on his first three batters. He walked one but got out of the inning with nothing hurt. 0-0...

Cuba has a 1-out double on Santana... a bit of wierd play puts runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 down... a single scores the run and leaves runners on 1st and 2nd... inning over 1-0...

Marti issues another walk... bullpen is active... a double-play leaves them empty...

Santana gets 3 in order... going into the bottom of 3. 1-0 Cuba...

Venezuela has a runner on first with one out... Vizquel bunts him to 2nd, 2 out... they don't score him...

Marti strikes out a couple that inning, he seems to have caught his stride... still 1-0...

Another quick inning for Santana... he has one bad inning so far. This is turning into a pitchers duel...

Marti has runners on 1st and 2nd after a pair of hits... he will be replaced. None out... A bunt for a basehit loads up the bases... fly ball is not deep enough... another one in the same spot. 2 down... strikeout, still 1-0...

Santana is not back in the 6th... a walk, a steal and a single score Cuba's second run... a ground ball ends up in Vizquel's shirt, runners on 1st and 2nd... homerun, 5-0 Cuba... back-to-back 6-0...

Cuba picked up another run in the 7th on a handful of singles... 7-0...

Venezuela got 2 runs back in the 7th... still a long way off, 7-2 Cuba...

Game Over. Cuba wins 7-2, they used 2 pitchers in the whole game, something they couldn't have done in the first round.

Preview – Round 2, Pool 2

2006-03-11T21:03:00.000-08:00

Preview - Round 2, Pool 1

2006-03-11T20:01:00.000-08:00

Round 2 is different from the first round in that every team here is expected to share a similar skill level. Unlike last week, when there were games that one team was simply never in contention for, every game in this round is up for grabs. We can talk about one team being better than the other, but we are talking about much smaller advantages in this round. Any of these teams could make the semi-finals.

Korea and Japan are entering the round looking to prove that they can play with the major leaguers on the United States and Mexico squads. Japan, of course, will also be setting out for revenge after being upset by Korea in the last game of Pool A play. Korea, on the other hand, wants to further cement themselves as equal to the Japanese and shift the balance of power in Asian baseball to their side of the Sea of Japan. But beyond their regional rivalry, both teams will have their sights set on the United States and the possibility of proving their leagues to be comparable in quality to MLB.

The Americans won’t get a chance to get revenge for their loss to Canada which could have resulted in their elimination. As it works out, they lived to see round 2 but the Canadians did not. There was some talk about the future of the Classic depending on the Americans advancing. I don’t know if I agree with that, but if it was the case, I don’t think it is anymore. If the USA gets eliminated in this round it will rightly be perceived as a success for the countries that do make the semifinals, not as an embarrassing failure on the part of the Americans. The US being beat—as opposed to losing—would be good for interest in the tournament since it would legitimize interest in foreign leagues and force an increasingly competitive attitude in 2009.

Spring

2006-03-11T12:55:00.000-08:00

It really is baseball season now...

I spent the morning at a warm-up practice session for 9-12 year-olds, they have their tryouts next weekend. Next I am headed to a high-school intersquad game. Baseball is everywhere again...

WBC Round 2 previews coming tonight...

Bonds in Review

2006-03-10T23:00:00.000-08:00

Everybody and their mother is writing about Barry Bonds this week, as the Onion aptly points out. They are responding to the book Game of Shadows, an excerpt of which is published in Sports Illustrated (click the link to read).

David Pinto has some things to say about the article’s accusations:

So on one hand, we are told that you can't gain 15 pounds of muscle in 100 days
without drugs, but Jason Schmidt gains 20 pounds and insists he's clean. Which
is it?

I am not a doctor, or a physical fitness expert of any sort, but I don’t have that tough of a time believing that someone in the shape of a world class athlete but who is not already particularly muscular can naturally bulk up to Bonds’ size in his mid-30’s.

Pinto doesn’t make note of another of the excerpt’s anecdotes of Bonds’ drug use, that in the 1999 season (before his injury) he batted .366 in 12 games. As any sabermetrician worth his salt can tell you, this number is exceptionally grounded in luck, you can find 12 game stretches in the season of any .235 hitter where they hit better than .366. In that short of a period we are talking about mere handfuls of hits, in other words “beware the small sample size.” Even if we could identify a legitimate improvement, it would be more aptly explained by the increased confidence that the Roids (or simply the added muscle mass) gave Bonds than the actual physical results of taking them. There is no reason at all to suppose that this statistical issue is connected with steroid use.

Those who go out of their way to write nasty things about Barry Bonds have a habit of using poor or emotional arguments. Despite all of this it is likely, for many reasons, that Bonds did take steroids so we are led to a secondary question. Are the records of baseball honest if they include Bonds?

John Brattain at the Hardball Times has input on this second question. He suggests that Bonds belongs in the record books, but that we will always attach the qualifier “but he used steroids” in discussion of his records. This is, I think, the appropriate attitude. The homeruns were hit nothing more can be said. To leave him out of the books, or to place him arbitrarily lower than Ruth and Aaron would be an insult to the records of those men and in general. Rather, record the facts and discuss the implications openly… denial doesn’t correct the problem.

However, I do question that a few decades now we will still be talking about this the same way. When Maris hit his 61, in the first 162 game season, it was argued that his record was worthless due to the fact that he had achieved it in more games than were allowed previous players. Before long this was forgotten. I will not suggest that Bonds’ situation is the same as that of Maris (first of all, players since Maris have all had 162 games in which to break their records, we hope that future players will not all use steroids). I will, however, point out that the situations are not entirely dissimilar and the question of what, exactly, separates them is complex. Baseball history might remember and accept the late nineties as the steroid era… if it does, we will likely remember Bonds more as the highest achiever of his time and less as the asterisk in the record book.

And even if steroids are inexplicably remembered only in relation to Bonds, there is still this to contend with:

Roger Clemens, here pitching for Team USA, called the information on Bonds "a witch hunt," adding, "You still have to hit the baseball."

Bonds' swing is, in fact, particularly admirable. Or, at least, that is what the hitting coaches seem to think.

Puerto Rico @ Cuba

2006-03-10T19:23:00.000-08:00

Puerto Rico is 11 runs ahead of Cuba (12-1) in the top of the 7th inning. The mercy rule is looking probable now…

The win places Puerto Rico in Pool C’s top spot, relegating Cuba to second place. Both teams are, of course, advancing.

Cuba scored one run in the 7th inning, but it is not enough to avoid the mercy rule. Game Over.

Australia @ Dominican Republic

2006-03-10T19:13:00.000-08:00

No surprise here, the Dominican Republic offense managed 6 runs on 8 hits. Australia, however, did score its first run of the tournament in the first inning, taking an early lead. They scored 4 runs on the game, including 2 in a top of the 9th comeback attempt.

It is worth noting, though that the Dominican team had nothing to lose since they had already clinched the top spot in their pool.

Today So Far...

2006-03-10T17:51:00.000-08:00

This afternoon's games worked out to be two blowouts.

As expected, the Americans wasted no time clinching their trip to the second round against South Africa. They scored 17 runs in the first four innings, the game was the first in the tournament to end on the 5-inning 15-run mercy rule.

The Netherlands saved a little face and picked up their only win of the tournament in the last Pool C game over Panama with a no-hitter and a strong offensive performance...

Still two games left in round 1 tonight but all the round 2 spots are wrapped up already. I will get previews for round 2 up sometime tomorrow.

Blogging Will Be Scarce...

2006-03-10T08:35:00.000-08:00

I will be in the car for most of the day today. This will cause me to miss the USA/South Africa and most or all of the rest of the action today. I will put up a couple of posts, including a Barry Bonds round up, when I get where I am going.

And I am taking it on faith that the USA squad has taken their loss to Canada to heart and will approach South Africa with a measure of caution.

Recap – Thurs. 9

2006-03-09T23:42:00.000-08:00

The advancing teams from Pools C and D were decided today with the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Cuba all advancing to Pool 2 of the second round. The games in those pools tomorrow, except the Puerto Rico/Cuba game which will decide which team takes the top spot, will have no effect the tournament results.

Pool B remains to be finalized. Mexico clinched advancement with their win over Canada which also gave the USA team control over who advances. It is reasonably safe to say that the Americans will beat the South Africans and take the last spot in Pool 1 of round 2. If we have another upset, however, the Canadians would advance.

Venezuela @ Australia

2006-03-09T16:53:00.000-08:00

Because Venezuela lost to the Dominican Republic they will need to win their last game tonight to clinch their spot in the next round. Should they lose, they rank above Italy in the first tie-break but would need the Dominican Republic to beat Australia tomorrow to advance.

They really shouldn't have any trouble. On the off chance of an upset tonight it will be interesting to see what the Dominicans do tomorrow evening since they are already safely in the next round...

Scoreless through 1...

A leadoff homerun for the Venezuelans makes it 1-0... That homerun was by Ramon Hernandez...

After the top of the 3rd it is still 1-0. The Venezuelans are going to want to score some more runs and put this one away...

The Australians get a baserunner in the 3rd, but he is caught stealing...

Bottom of 4, the Venezuelans still lead on the HR alone...

Australia has a walk and a stolen base... they are threatening to tie it up... another stolen base and they have a runner on third with one out. At the same time a walk puts the go-ahead on first base... Nilsson grounds into a double play... still 1-0 Venezuela...

Venezuela has a couple of runners in the 5th but doesn't score any runs. Still a one run game...

Australia draws a 1 out walk... Kelvim Escobar is coming out of the game after picking up the 2nd out... no runs given up...

The Venezuelans have a couple of runners now, with two outs... a walk loads the bases... Vizquel walks and a run scores... pitching change... the new pitcher gets the last out, 2-0... A little more breathing room, but still a very close game...

After 6, still 2-0... Australia needs to get the offense going quick, they are running out of chances...

Venezuela has a single and a pair of walks in the 7th, but can't pick up any runs...

A quick 3 outs and Australia has only 2 chances left...

The Australian side strikes out again in the 8th...

Venezuela leaves the score as is for the bottom of the 9th...

K-Rod will come in to close the game for Venezuela... conventional wisdom says this is in the bag... He kills them in order, including two strikeouts. Game Over...

Australia has managed 2 hits in 18 innings of play so far in this tournament...

The win for Venezuela clinches a trip to the second round for them and the Dominican Republic. Pool B is the only pool still open, now.

Mexico @ Canada

2006-03-09T16:45:00.000-08:00

The United States needs Mexico to lose or score more than 2 runs in a win...

We should all be watching this game very closely. Whether you are and American or not, the score tonight will have more direct impact on the tournament than anything we have seen so far...

Underway...

Mexico has a baserunner with 2 out in the 1st after Castilla is hit by a pitch... a double scores him. Questionable play moves the runner to 3rd... another double scores a 2nd run... the US needs them to score one more... a 3rd double scores the 3rd run... the US can breathe easy now, regardless of who wins... That is really bad for Canada. Now they NEED to win... yet another double, 4-0 Mexico...

Canada is through the first inning now... That rally with 2 outs will be remembered as a major turning point in this tournament if the US wins, or even makes the semi-finals...

Clemens will start the South Africa game tomorrow night. The current rumor is that he will retire (permanently, this time) after the Classic. I'm not sure if I believe that, but if so these last few games will be well remembered... Mexico gets through Canada without much trouble...

Mexico has another double to leadoff the 2nd, an ground-out moves him to third... A LONG homerun makes it 6-0... still only 1 out in the 2nd... the bomb was by Tampa Bay youngster Jorge Cantu... the announcers are already discussing the mercy rule. 2nd out is made on a grounder to short...

A leadoff walk puts the Candians on base, Stairs grounds into double play...

Top of 3rd... an error on a flyball to 2nd puts another Mexican runner on base... double-play and the error doesn't hurt anything, still 6-0...

Mexico is through another inning. Moving into the 4th now... the mercy rule is looking further off now, barring a big inning or two...

Another double to leadoff for Mexico... a flyout moves him to third with 1 down... after a pitching change, Cantu has a single to score him... the Canadians get their outs, the inning ends at 8-0 Mexico...

Canada's Clapp has an infield single to leadoff the 4th... they can't do anything with it...

Mexico has 2 runners after a few hits, a double play leaves a runner on 3rd with 2 out... they can't score him... still 8-0 in the middle of the 5th...

Mexico is still throwing starter Esteban Loaiza, he should be able to get through the 5th inning... Loaiza lets a couple of runners on base, but doesn't give up any runs... he should be done now since he has thrown 62 pitches...

Mexico has a leadoff hit... they are reaching for that mercy rule now, but it is sill only the 6th inning... 2 outs... a walk, there are runners on 1st and 2nd now... a hit scores one run and leaves runners on 1 and 2 again... a ground out to SS ends that inning, 9-0...

Loaiza is back again in the 6th, apparently just to face Stubby Clapp... he issues a walk and now will come out of the game... Oliver Perez is the pitcher... another walk and there are runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out... Perez gets a K, then issues another walk. Bases loaded... Perez has a second K, 2 down... Perez issues yet another walk, killing the shutout. 9-1... and another K to end the inning. Perez struck out the side but also walked three and let Loaiza's run score...

Mexico doesn't score in the 7th...

Canada gets on base on a hit by pitch. A double-play ends the inning...

Still 9-1 after Mexico's 8th...

Jason Bay has a leadoff hit for Canada in the 8th... an out and a walk, runners on first and second... again, the Canadians can't do anything to put their runners in... heading into the 9th...

Mexico draws a walk with two outs... Koskie makes a nice play to kill the inning... Canada needs a serious offensive explosion in the 9th or they are going to need the United States to lose to South Africa...

Ricardo Rincon is coming in to close out the game for Mexico... Rincon got 2 outs and will be replaced by Luis Ayala... Flyball, Game Over.

Mexico has its spot in round 2 wrapped up.

Canada, on the other hand, needs the US to lose to South Africa on a Rodger Clemens start if they are going to advance. Otherwise it will be Mexico and the US meeting Korea and Japan in Pool 1 of the second round.

Cuba @ Netherlands

2006-03-09T16:44:00.000-08:00

The Cubans scored 2 runs in the first inning to take the early lead...

Still 2-0 in the bottom of the second...

The score remains 2-0 after 3 innings. Cuba's starting pitcher is under 40 pitches so far. The Netherlands has held on so far but will likely go to the bullpen for the start of the 4th...

They don't go to the bullpen and quickly give up a 2-run homer, 1 out... 2 outs now and Cuba scores on an error... they get another run on another hitm but are out on the bases... 6-0 Cuba...

Cuba strikes out the side. They are still using their starting pitcher...

This is now in the bottom of 5, still 6-0. Romero, the Cuban starter is coming back in for the 5th, he has thrown 51 pitches... He won't get to finish the inning after a long at-bat and a couple of hits... Palma, the replacement pitcher induces a double play...

Cuba has 2 runners on with none out after a leadoff hit and a walk... but they don't add any runs...

The Netherlands has a walk and a single with one out in the bottom of the 6th... looking to score their first runs... that was only their 3rd hit of the game... a ground out moves them to 2nd and 3rd base... a walk to Andruw Jones loads them up... Cuba will switch pitchers, Palma threw 28... The Netherlands puts in 2 runs on a single... Cuba is making another pitching change... the 3rd pitcher of the inning gets the 3rd out... 6-2 Cuba...

Cuba gets a walk and a hit... an error on Andruw Jones on the hit puts the runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out... a single scores one... a homerun clears the bases off and scores three more runs... 10-2 Cuba, still only one down... If Cuba can score 2 more runs they can end the game early after half an inning more... the Cubans strike out twice to end the inning...

The Netherlands can't get anything done in the 7th...

Cuba has a runner with 1 out after a hit by pitch... they get nothing...

2 Netherlands batters strikeout and they go down in order...

Runners on 1st and 2nd for Cuba after a pair of singles... double-play... a single makes it 11-2... but that is all they can get. The Netherlands needs 9 runs on their last three outs...

Game over... Cuba clinched advancement for itself and Puerto Rico with that win.

Hall of Fame Voting

2006-03-09T14:16:00.000-08:00

The issue regarding how to elect new Hall of Famers is an interesting one and has been in question since the beginning of the Hall. The method decided upon—the method we use now—revealed itself very quickly as ineffective (and the writers as incompetent to make any group decisions) during a long period in the early 1940’s when they couldn’t find a reason to elect anyone other than Rodgers Hornsby. The inconsistencies in the elections have been and will continue to be a serious issue.

This open letter offers a possible solution. This guy basically wants the Hall to let super-fans like himself (or me) to vote after some sort of application process. While I understand the sentiment, I am not sure that this “solution” would offer any help. If the current voters—who have, by requirement, been writing about baseball for a major news sheet for 10 years—can’t find any consistency in their voting I don’t see how adding a bunch of fans selected by some arbitrary process would help. If anything this would make the voting less consistent since the fans are of even more diverse opinion and background than the writers, though probably it would stay about the same.

I don’t know how to solve the problems in the Hall but adding more arbitrarily selected voters is not the way to do it.

Dominican Republic @ Italy

2006-03-09T13:06:00.000-08:00

The Dominican Republic won, much as expected. Nothing overly interesting here, except that Piazza went 0-4. He hit .091 for Italy in their entire series. That is particularly bad considering that Italy unexpectedly won a game and, with a little pop from Piazza, might have had a chance to score a second upset against Venezuela or D.R. and advance. Nothin' doin' and Italy is done.

Today’s Schedule

2006-03-09T09:51:00.000-08:00

I will miss the first few hours of the Italy/Dominican Republic game this morning but I don’t expect it will be a particularly exciting match-up. I should at least be around for the rest of the games tonight, but whether I will be able to live-blog them or not remains to be seen.

Times Eastern:

1:00 Italy @ Dominican Republic

7:00 Cuba @ Netherlands

8:00 Mexico @ Canada

8:00 Venezuela @ Australia

Recap – Wed. 8

2006-03-08T23:39:00.000-08:00

Canada’s win over the U.S. stands out as the most important and most unexpected event of the day. I already went through the trouble of explaining what the United States team has to do to advance. I won’t bother again.

The Cubans beat Panama in a very interesting extra-innings game. The Venezuelans didn’t have to work too hard to shut-out the Italians and had enough offense to make the win comfortable. The Puerto-Ricans won their second game after 5 or 6 close innings with the Netherlands. And the Mexicans gave up four runs to the South African team, never losing the lead. Except for the USA/Canada upset, everything went about as expected today.

The U.S. Situation

2006-03-08T21:38:00.000-08:00

The American team beat the Mexicans yesterday and lost to the Canadians today. For those of you who were wondering, this means that the fate of the U.S. is largely in the hands of the Canadian/Mexican game tomorrow at 8:00 EST.

Assuming the Americans aren't upset by the South Africans on Friday, the outcome of Pool B hinges on that game. If the Canadians win than the U.S. has nothing to worry about, Canada would have 3 wins, the Americans would have 2, and Mexico 1. That would be ideal. On the other hand if the Mexicans win, each team would be 2-1 and we would go into tie-breaks.

The first tie breaker is head-to-head match-ups. This would also be a tie since each of the contending teams would have lost to another different contending team. The second tie-break is runs allowed (per-9 innings played in defense) against the other tied teams. So far the Mexico team has given up 2 runs in one game, the Canadians have given up 6 runs in one game and the Americans have given up 8 runs in two games. The American number is cemented, regardless of what they do against South Africa (assuming they win) their tie-break number is 8 runs. So American fans need to root for a Canada win or for the Mexicans to score at least 3 runs, pushing to the Canadian number up to 9 and putting Mexico and the U.S. in the next round on the tie-break.

Update: I apologizeise for the mistake. The World Baseball Classic About page has an explanation of the tie-breaking procedure that apparently isn't true at all. The Standings page has what is apparently the correct explanation. Under this setup, it is head-to-head runs that serves as the second tie-break. In this case, it is necessarary for Mexico to either lose or to win in a relatively high scoring game for the U.S. to make it through. The above has been corrected to reflect this...

Puerto Rico @ Netherlands

2006-03-08T16:40:00.000-08:00

Another expected blowout...

The Puerto Ricans pick up a run on two hits in the first inning...

Joel Pineiro is pitching for the Puerto Ricans... he is through the first quickly...

Another inning and the score is still 1-0...

A Lopez home run makes it 2-0...

Pineiro gives up a couple of hits in the 3rd inning and loads the bases with a walk but gets out of it...

I am leaving to work on some other things. I will give the rest of the updates for this game and for South Africa/Mexico after all of todays games are done.

Italy @ Venezuela

2006-03-08T16:10:00.000-08:00

I know I have sounded like this before, but Venezuela should have no trouble with the Italians...

Italy goes down 1-2-3 to Freddy Garcia...

Italy walks one, balks and gives up a hit. 1-0...

Mike Piazza leads of the 2nd for Italy. He strikes out making him 0-4 on the tournament... Easy inning again for Garcia...

Still 1-0 after 2...

Italy has 2 baserunners in the top of the 3rd after a walk and a error... a line drive loads up the bases... 2 strike-outs end the inning...

Venezuela scored another one in the 2nd and forced a pitching change before the end of the inning...

Piazza stuck out yet again... he isn't offering much help to his team so far...

Venezuela tacks on another run on an error, 3-0...

Cabrera hit a homerun for Venezuela in the 5th, 4-0. Venezuela hasn't had any big innings but they keep tacking on more and more runs every inning and have widened the lead...

I am leaving to work on some other things. I will give the rest of the updates for this game and for South Africa/Mexico after all of todays games are done.

USA @ Canada

2006-03-08T13:10:00.000-08:00

The American team shouldn't have too much trouble with the Canadians here...

Canada has a runner on third after the 1 out triple... they score him on a ground out... Willis has walked two... He strikes out Koskie to finish the inning, 1-0 canada...

Jeter has a hit with one out in the 1st... Griffey walks... so does Derrek Lee... double-play...

Willis comes back for a second inning... a booted ball in right field puts another runner on third, again with one out... and another triple makes it 2-0 Canada... Willis is out of that inning. The US needs to hit now...

Veritek has a 2 out hit... Chopper to SS for the 3rd out... nothing there...

Willis is back for the 3rd... Jason Bay has another hit for Canada... and Morneau. 2 on, none out... ground ball, 1 out. The runners advance to 2nd and 3rd... looping drive to SS, 2 down... Willis will get 1 more at-bat before his pitch limit is up, just enough to finish the inning... a comebacker off of Willis' glove scores a 3rd run and finishes the game for Willis... Leiter is coming in... he walks one to load the bases... a hit scores two more 5-0 Canada... Leiter finally gets the 3rd out on a ground ball...

The United States really needs to hit now to get in control of this game... top of the order is up... Young is out early... Jeter is down, too... Griffey gets a double... Derrek Lee grounds out... US fails to score yet again...

Jason Bay has another hit with one out... ground rule double, yet again they have a runner on 3rd with 1 out... Leiter is coming out of the game... Another hit, 7-0 Canada... another hit... this is just getting embarassing for USA. The announcers are talking about the mercy rule... through the inning, finally...

Chipper Jones leads off the inning with an flyout to centerfield... Teixeira is on base after a bobbled ball in the infield... and a walk... The US really needs to capitalize on this chance if they are going to get back into this game... a deep fly ball sends Teixeira to third, 2 out... Canada is changing pitchers. Another flyout, and the US is scoreless still...

MLB.com is subtle, their headline says "Border Battle Leaning Canada's Way." That is just a bit understated...

An inside the park home-run... the announcers are in denial, they think the important thing there was that the left-fielder Holliday limped a bit... I would hate to tell them, but we have plenty of people to replace Holliday, our problem is much deeper than that right now... they are through that inning with only the 1 run scored. That is one of their best innings of the day...

Young beats out an infield hit to lead off the inning... Jeter flys out to shallow center... Griffey finally gets the US on the board, on a double... Derrek Lee adds another hit, Francoeur, who pinch ran for Griffey, scores... Chipper has another hit. runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 0ut, 8-2... Teixeira strikes out, 2 down... Vernon Wells walks... Veritek smokes that with the bases loaded, grand slam, dead center. 8-6 Canada... that is it for the inning, but USA is playing a game again...

Making some defensive changes on the US side, including putting in A-Rod for Chipper at 3rd... a quick inning for pitcher Houston Street. One walk and a caught stealing...

The Americans go down 1-2-3 in the 6th...

Shields gets a strikeout and a nice play at 2nd base taking the Canadians down 1-2-3...

The American side is out in order as well, 2 strikeouts. They have 2 more innings to tie the game up...

Shields is pitching again in the 8th... gives up a walk and a double. A good relay makes the last out at home. Still 8-6...

This is a huge inning for the US, Vernon Wells leads off with a walk... after an out Damon walks... another pair of outs, including one over 400 ft from home, and the US is down to one inning...

Canada is out in order... 3 outs to go...

2 down... and A-Rod pops out, but it is dropped on the dive... Teixeira grounds out... Game Over. Canada wins 8-6...

Exhibition Games

2006-03-08T12:16:00.000-08:00

Japan and Korea both have exhibition games against major league split-squads. Japan will play Seattle and Korea will play Kansas City. Both games are at 9:05 Eastern.

Cuba @ Panama

2006-03-08T09:48:00.000-08:00

I will miss the first hour or so of the Cuba/Panama game but I'll try to be around for the last few innings...

Panama, much like last night's game with Puerto Rico, had the early lead against Cuba. Cuba just tied it up in the top of the 3rd with a big Eduardo Paret double off of Bruce Chen... a walk and another double gives Cuba the 2-1 lead with runners still on 2nd and 3rd and 2 down... a strike out closes the inning... Chen has a pitch count in the mid-30s so expect him to throw another inning or two...

Panama needs to win this game if they want to advance... they go down in order in the 3rd...

Chen takes down Cuba in 8 pitches in the 4th...

Panama is out 1-2-3 again in their 4th inning... So is Cuba in the 5th... Chen will get another inning, he is at 50 after the 5th...

Panama is out in order yet again after a nice play by the Cuban shortstop...

Bruce Chen will not pitch the 6th. The new pitcher Gomez hits the first batter... an easy fly ball carries on the 2nd baseman and falls in runners on 1st and 2nd with none out, now... a ground out moves the runners to 2nd and 3rd, 1 out... and they intentionally walk Cepeda (the LF and 5th hitter)... Pitching change--Gomez didn't do much good, he got 1 out and is on the line for 3 runs... the 23 year-old Corpas will replace him... Corpas induces the double-play and saves Gomez his runs. Still 2-1...

Carlos Lee has a leadoff single for Panama in the 6th. I find myself rooting for Panama, here, as the underdog. If they win this, they would be in good position to advance (since they will almost certainly beat the Netherlands)... And a walk moves the tieing run into scoring position... a pinch runner comes on at 1st base... 3 run bomb... 4-2 Panama leads... still none out in the inning... they are out in order following the Rivera HR...

Corpas is pitching again in the 7th. If they can get three innings out of him they should be able to win this game... Cuba has a hit with one out... passed ball moves him to 2nd... a walk puts the tieing run on 1st... a runs scores on a single to right as the ball is bobbled on the right fielder... HBP loads up the bases, the Cubans aren't happy about that, but they should be... Corpas is done... a sac-fly off of the new pitcher Acosta, 4-4... Acosta gets out of the inning on a flyball to the 2nd baseman. He manages not to give up the lead... this is getting very interesting...

Panama has a runner with one out after the HBP... a double-play is blown by the Cuban 2nd baseman, but they get the one out... strike out ends the inning...

The Cubans have a runner on the leadoff walk... they try to bunt with two strikes and miss. 1 out... a fielders choice that could have been a double play makes the second out... fly ball to the 2nd baseman moves us to the bottom of the 8th. Still 4-4...

Leadoff hit for Panama... Rivera, who hit the homerun earlier, struck out... the hit-and-run draws the second baseman toward the bag and right in position to turn an up the middle hit into an inning ending double play...

A somewhat controversial hit-by-pitch here, the batter showed bunt and got hit tight in on the hands. They called it right, though and sent him to first base... they bunt him to second, 1 out... he's picked off on a very close play (looked like he got him). 2 down, that was HUGE... Cuba gets a walk and a homerun to go up 6-4. they need 3 outs now...

Panama has a leadoff hit... a hit, then they load the bases after a bunt base-hit... Here we go... strike out, 1 down... bloop hit scores one and keeps the bases loaded with 1 out... Strike out, 2 down... Another Hit-By-Pitch to tie the game. Bases still loaded, 2 outs... full count... flyball takes us to the 10th...

Cuba gets a baserunner, but does nothing in the 10th...

Panama hits a flyball in foul territory that would have been an out except for a small collision between fielders... they get him anyway on a grounder... the next two go down easy... going into the 11th...

Cuba gets two runners with 2 outs and has a base hit to score one... they get one more before the end of the inning, 8-6 Cuba...

Panama needs 2 runs this inning... that was a leadoff double to get it started... a ground ball moves him to 3rd and puts the first out on the board... another ground out, 2 down... fly ball out... game over.

Cuba held on and eliminated a Panama team that looked much better than expected in its first two games...

Clemens Again

2006-03-08T09:43:00.000-08:00

Many are reporting this as Clemens retirement. However, it doesn't really contain any information that we didn't already expect.

Clemens won't play at the beginning of the season. We could have said this with some certainty months ago. If Clemens throws well in the Classic and is comfortable with his arm, there is still a good chance that he will want to pitch again in a couple months.

Tuesday WBC Recap

2006-03-08T00:43:00.000-08:00

Most things went as expected. The Dominicans and Venezuelans are good, as are Mexico and the United States, and the Canadians and South Africans are weak and inconsistent. We did learn a couple of interesting things today, though:

1 - The Australians are almost certainly getting swept—they were mercy ruled by the one team that was supposed to be so bad even the Aussies couldn’t lose to them. It’s a shame; I would have liked to have seen them perform well.

2 – Either Panama isn’t as bad as we thought or Puerto Rico isn’t as good.

Also, I was surprised at the willingness of the US team to show off their depth, changing pitchers every inning and switching out position players at a whim. Their ability to replace anyone without losing value lets them play the strategy game any way they want. It could come in handy late in the tournament.

Canada Leads South Africa

2006-03-07T20:37:00.001-08:00

Canada has another big inning scoring four runs in the top side of the 7th, largely thanks to Jason Bay, Justin Morneau and Corey Koskie. They take the lead 7-4.

They give one back in the bottom half... 7-5...

The South Africans load the bases up in the bottom of the eighth and score three runs on a double. 7-8 South Africa leads...

The Canadians are on top again after a 4-run top of the 9th...

They stay on top this time...

WBC Updates (Updated)

2006-03-07T18:59:00.000-08:00

I have a moment so here are updates for the on-going games:

Puerto-Rico is beating Panama 2-1 in the top of 9. This is a little closer than expected.

Italy has pretty much sealed the deal against Australia 7-0 in the bottom of 6 (and about to score another). The Australians have 1 hit.

Canada and South Africa are scoreless through three.

Update: Puerto-Rico is done... 2-0.

Update 2: Italy completed the mercy rule against Australia, scoreing their tenth run in the bottom of the 7th.

Update 3: Canada has a 3-run top of the 5th to take the first lead of the game against South Africa.

Update 4: Paul Quantrill had a bad inning for Canada giving up 4 runs and the lead...

Spring Training

2006-03-07T16:34:00.000-08:00

With the World Baseball Classic now in full swing, it is tempting to simply forget about spring training, but your clubs are still playing in Florida and Arizona. Have a look at the scoreboard.

Today’s Schedule

2006-03-07T15:36:00.000-08:00

There are three more games today after wins by the Dominican Republic and United States:

7:00pm - Panama vs Puerto Rico

8:00pm - Australia vs Italy

9:00pm - Canada vs South Africa

- Times Eastern

I am not sure how much—if any—of these games I will be able to watch live. But I will try to catch up and let you know what I think.

Mexico @ USA

2006-03-07T13:00:00.000-08:00

This game is starting up in a minute. As soon as the Dominican game is over I will switch it on…

Junior is the only base-runner for USA in the 1st (on a walk)... 0-0...

In the first two innings the US allows two baserunners and secures two double plays to erase them...

Peavy is throwing well, 3 K in 3 innings. He has thrown under 30 pitches so expect him to pitch another inning or two...

The US is moving now. A Randy Winn single leads off the inning and Jeter moves him to third on a second single with 2 outs... Junior is up... flies out. Inning over...

US switches Peavy out for Timlin. Peavy can throw again tomorrow, if they need him. Still no score going into the bottom of 4...

Derek Lee smoked that ball to right center... 1-0...

The U.S. team is switching pitchers again as Cordero comes in for Timlin. Both Timlin and Peavy can now throw again tomorrow. Assuming this doesn't cost them runs, it is very effecient use of the pitching depth. Cordero throws a flawless inning...

Elmer Dessens replaces Rodrigo Lopez on the mound. Lopez threw 54 pitches... Johnny Damon has a 2 out triple... but he is left there on a Jeter fly out...

USA is switching pitchers again this time it is Wheeler. He gives up a scary drive for a warning track out on the first pitch... He gets them in order...

The U.S. has now thrown 4 pitchers: Peavy threw 24 pitches, Timlin threw 14, Cordero threw 11 and Wheeler threw 8 in his first inning. They might still leave Wheeler in for another inning since he is unlikely to break the 30 pitch mark...

A-Rod has a 1 out hit and is replaced by Vernon Wells to run... Buck Martinez is really using the teams Depth to his advantage... Double-play, inning over...

Going into the 7th, still 1-0. The U.S. changed a lot of its defensive players out and replace Wheeler with Todd Jones... Another Mexican baserunner leads to another double-play... Jones threw 9 pitches...

Chipper Jones, who has been playing 3rd base since A-rod was brought out, hit the second HR of the game for the second run. 2-0 USA... Mexico is changing pitchers... Rincon gets out of the inning...

Joe Nathan is pitching the 8th for USA... Nathan has 3 strikeouts to leave Mexico only 3 outs to tie it up. Lidge will probably throw the 9th...

The US has nothing on the offensive side of the 9th. This is Mexico's last chance, and Lidge will come in to pitch the 9th... Lidge takes care of them in order, striking out 1...

Mexico's pitching was impressive, but they couldn't do much against the US pitchers (all of whom are eligible to pitch again tomorrow).

D.R. and Venezuela

2006-03-07T12:44:00.000-08:00

The Dominican Republic leads going into the 8^th. Colon threw three scoreless giving the Dominican team space for an early lead. They have been giving up runs every inning since he came out. At 6-5, I have to figure that the Dominicans are going to need to score more runs to win this game…

They couldn't pick up any in the top of 8. Venezuela's turn...

Venezulea can't get a baserunner after some impressive defensive play by the Dominican side. Going into the 9th...

Tejada bunts for a hit to lead off the 9th... a wild pitch moves him to second and Pujols flys out. 1 down... Ortiz crushes it. 8-5, now they have some space.

Beltre hit another bomb after an Alou hit... 10-5...

Belliard drives in another 11-5... Tejada, who started the inning with the bunt, gets the last out. Venezuela needs 6 runs in 3 outs...

Vizque flys out... 2 outs left... As does Guillen, 1 more... Abreu flys out as well... game over.

So it is Venezuela that needs to take care against the Aussies and Italians. They shouldn't have much trouble with their pitching...

Pool D Upset?

2006-03-07T09:57:00.000-08:00

The Dominican Republic and Venezuela are kicking off Pool D play in a few minutes. I won't be around as it happens but I will watch later today and let you know what I think.

Meanwhile, Baseball Musings notes that the Pool setup will put one of the two best teams 1 game from elimination early. If it is the Dominican team, they will have already used their only especially good pitchers. An upset is, in fact, much more likely than it might otherwise be. I wouldn't worry too much though, the Dominicans--Colon or no--should still be a far better team than the Italians and the Australians.

WBC Preview: Venezuela

2006-03-07T01:22:00.000-08:00

Venezuela won the Caribbean Series earlier this year. Now, with the addition of a few big-time major league stars for both the Venezuelans and the Dominican team, we get to see a larger-scale rematch… probably more than one. Venezuela doesn’t quite have the hitting that the Dominicans can boast but their pitching is far better, top to bottom. It will be interesting to see how the teams do against each other in the first round.

Notable Players:

You have probably heard of everyone on the starting lineup… here are some of the better position players:

Victor Martinez (C)
Miguel Cabrera (3B)
Bobby Abreu (RF)
Magglio Ordonez (LF)
Omar Vizquel (SS)

Starting Pitchers: Johan Santana, Freddy Garcia, Kelvim Escobar

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Dominican Republic, Mar. 7, 1:00 PM EST, Deportes/ESPN

v. Italy, Mar. 8, 7:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (10:30pm)

@ Australia, Mar. 9, 8:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (10:30pm)

WBC Preview: Italy

2006-03-07T00:22:00.000-08:00

Baseball has been in Italy since World War II but it hasn’t gained enough popularity to garner many Italian born MLB players. The professional leagues in Italy are analogous to rookie league and A-ball in America. The pitching is weak and the hitting is weak. Unless something amazing happens, these guys are going to be China all over again—or worse, especially since they are up against the Dominicans and Venezuelans. They do have Mike Piazza to their credit, but he is well past his prime and not likely to have much of an effect on

Notable Players:

Mike Piazza (C) – Don’t expect this to amount to much.

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Australia, Mar. 7, 8:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (8 Mar 2:00am)

@ Venezuela, Mar. 8, 7:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (10:30pm)

@ Dominican Republic, Mar. 9, 1:00 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (10 Mar 2:00am)

WBC Preview: Dominican Republic

2006-03-06T23:53:00.000-08:00

Expect the Dominican team to have little trouble with the Australians and the Italians. Their first game against Venezuela, however, will be worth a watch. Both of those teams will almost certainly be advancing to Round 2 but we will get an idea of how they will fair later-on. This is a very hitting heavy team they but the pitching, besides Bartolo Colon, is on the weak side so we can expect high scoring games. Round 2 with Cuba and Venezuela will force someone other than Colon to pitch an important game, which will make for interesting play…

Notable Players:

Like the Americans it is simply more efficient, here, to just give you the lineup than to try to pick out who is worth special mention:

Willy Taveras, CF
Alfonso Soriano, 2B
Albert Pujols, 1B
David Ortiz, DH
Vladimir Guerrero, RF (not likely to play, Wily Mo Pena will replace him)
Moises Alou, LF
Miguel Tejada, SS
Ronnie Belliard, 3B
Miguel Olivo or Alberto Castillo, C

Conspicuously Missing:

The Dominicans, like the Americans, have a deep roster. It is a good thing they have such skill in their replacement players because otherwise they would be in a tough spot, missing these guys:

Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, and Luis Castillo.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ Venezuela, Mar. 7, 1:00 PM EST, Deportes/ESPN

v. Italy, Mar. 9, 1:00 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (10 Mar 2:00am)

v. Australia, Mar. 10, 7:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (11:00pm)

WBC Preview: Australia

2006-03-06T22:55:00.000-08:00

The general account of the origins of Baseball in Australia has Americans importing the sport as early as the 1850’s. Australians have been playing professional baseball since about 1990, the sport is still growing down-under. Don’t expect them to perform too against the Dominican and Venezuelan teams that will almost certainly be the two teams advancing from Pool D. On the other hand, the Italian team is likely worse, all-around, so the Aussies should get one good win in before they pack their bags.

Notable Players:

There are five players who have appeared in a Major League game that are expected to start for the Australians:

Dave Nilsson (DH) – Played off and on for the Brewers through most of the 1990’s, hit over .300 a couple of times, and made the all-star team in 1999, his final season in the Majors. Apparently he went back to Australia after being granted free-agency (the Sydney Olympics were in 2000… that might have something to do with it). Will probably bat 4^th.

Damian Moss (P) – Had some success as a starter in 2002 and 2003 but hasn’t played much since. He spent last season as a free agent.

Trent Durrington (2B) – Likely 2^nd hitter. Has played about a season’s worth in games in the majors over the past five years with a sub-.200 average over that time.

Justin Huber (1B) – 3^rd hitter. Played a handful of games with Kansas City as a 22 year-old last season.

Glenn Williams (3B) – 6^th hitter. Also played his first few games last year (for Minnesota), and hit well in them.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ Italy, Mar. 7, 8:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (8 Mar 2:00am)

v. Venezuela, Mar. 9, 8:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (10:30pm)

@ Dominican Republic, Mar. 10, 7:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (11:00pm)

WBC Preview: Puerto Rico

2006-03-06T22:19:00.000-08:00

The home of Roberto Clemente. Expect them to advance through the first round and to have a rough 2^nd round. With the Dominican Republic, Cuba and Venezuela as the other likely contenders it will be hard for Puerto Rico to make space for itself in the semifinals.

The Puerto Rico/Cuba game is the main attraction of Pool C. First of all, since neither of those teams is likely to have trouble with the other two, it is likely to be the game that decides the 1 and 2 spots. More importantly we will get to compare the Cubans, who we know little about to the Major League heavy Puerto Rican team. After this game we should know what to expect

There is some question about Delgado’s health but hitting shouldn’t be a problem one way or another. If anything holds the Puerto Ricans back—even after they get into the second round—it will be the pitching. That their second starter is Joel Pineiro, whose recent record is decisively sub-par, reveals their weakness in pitching depth.

Notable Players:

Jose Vidro (2B) – A pretty good average hitter without much power, will be the team’s 2^nd hitter.

Carlos Beltran (CF) – Beltran had a great year in 2004 and dipped back a bit in ’05, but still stands out as a solid player and will be a credit to this lineup from the third spot.

Carlos Delgado (1B) – Will serve as the team’s power from the 4^th spot.

Ivan Rodriguez (C) – They’ve got Pudge… enough said.

Javier Vazquez (P) – Their best pitcher. Not a standout in the major leagues, but capable none-the-less.

The rest of the starting lineup also boasts major league experience.

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Panama, Mar. 7, 7:00 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN (8 Mar 3:00am)

@ Netherlands, Mar. 8, 7:30 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (9 Mar 2:30am).

@ Cuba, Mar. 10, 7:30 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (11 Mar 2:00am)

WBC Preview: Panama

2006-03-06T21:30:00.000-08:00

Panama has had its share of major leaguers over the years. Some, like Rod Carew, have been very successful and have given the sport quite a bit of clout in the country. For the tournament, Panama is in largely the same situation as the Netherlands, with lots of amateur/unknown players and very little major league experience. They are expected to be beaten handily by the Puerto Ricans and by the Cubans. Unlike the Dutch team, however, Panama has a few amateur players that come highly anticipated, this kid, for instance. You shouldn’t expect them to advance, but do expect their games to be worth watching.

Notable Players:

Carlos Lee – Panama’s only real offensive weapon.

Bruce Chen – If Chen has a big start and gets a little run support early than Panama

Conspicuously Missing:

Mariano Rivera – It is doubtful that the great closer would provide much help to this team in their games against Puerto Rico and Cuba.

A few less notable players with major league experience (Einar Diaz Jose Macias and Olmedo Saenz) who might have given the team a little help, but it is hard to count them as sorely missed.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ Puerto Rico, Mar. 7, 7:00 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN (8 Mar 3:00am)

v. Cuba, Mar. 8, 1:00 PM EST, ESPN 2 & on delay Deportes (9 Mar 2:00am)

v. Netherlands, Mar. 10, 1:00 PM EST, Deportes

WBC Preview: Netherlands

2006-03-06T16:53:00.000-08:00

This team is considered a European powerhouse, but they are probably the weakest team in their pool. The Netherlands played reasonably well in an exhibition against a split-squad Braves team this weekend. Their hitting, except for Andruw Jones, is decisively weak and their pitching, while not necessarily bad, is limited. They are going to have to play far above expectations to have a shot at advancing past Pool C.

Notable Players:

Andruw Jones – A great power hitter and very strong defensive outfielder. But it would take a spectacular performance for the 2005 MVP candidate to push the Netherlands into contention for advancement.

Conspicuously Missing:

Sidney Ponson – The Aruba born pitcher is sitting out, though it is questionable whether his presence would be enough to give the Netherlands team a chance at the second round.

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Puerto Rico. Mar. 8, 7:30 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (9 Mar 2:30am).

v. Cuba. Mar. 9, 7:00 PM EST, Deportes.

@ Panama. Mar. 10, 1:00 PM EST, Deportes.

WBC Preview: Cuba

2006-03-06T16:10:00.000-08:00

It is hard to tell exactly what to expect from the Cuban team when they play teams with a lot of major league experience. What we do know is that these players are top class among the amateurs. Cuban players have been playing in the major leagues since the beginning of the National Association but this week we will find out if the MLB is missing as much because of the embargo as cigar smokers are.

Expect this team to advance to the second round and have to face off with the big-hitting Dominican team.

Notable Players:

Maybe no-one, maybe everyone, probably somewhere in-between… The Cubans are bringing mostly young players (an average age around 24), as rumor has it, so watch and find out.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ Panama, Mar. 8, 1:00 PM EST, ESPN 2 & on delay Deportes (9 Mar 2:00am)

@ Netherlands, Mar. 9, 7:00 PM EST, Deportes

v. Puerto Rico, Mar. 10, 7:30 PM EST, Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (11 Mar 2:00am)

Puckett Still Critical (Updated)

2006-03-06T15:50:00.000-08:00

ESPN says Puckett is in critical condition... the AP has more.

Update: The Hall-of-Famer died this evening... Again, best wishes to his family.

Analyzing Sabermetrics

2006-03-06T12:45:00.000-08:00

The Baseball Analysts has a sort of panel discussion on “the state of Sabermetrics.” There are some good quotes from Bill James in the introduction and they pick up some interesting topics in the discussion. It is worth the read.

WBC Preview: United States

2006-03-06T00:08:00.000-08:00

An obvious powerhouse. Expect them to sweep Pool B and—at the very least—to make the semifinal round. If they do any less than that it will likely be theorized that they didn’t take the competition seriously. We don’t really know what to expect when they face the Japanese and the Koreans those should be the first really interesting games we see the Americans in.

Notable Players:

I might as well just give you the whole lineup here:

Lineup:
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Ken Griffey Jr. CF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Chipper Jones DH
Derrek Lee 1B
Jason Varitek C
Vernon Wells RF
Michael Young 2B

Starting Pitchers:
Jake Peavy
Dontrelle Willis
Roger Clemens

Conspicuously Missing:

A couple of players, most importantly Bonds, will not be playing, but don’t expect their absence to drag the team down much. A lot of USA’s strength is derived from its depth.

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Mexico, Mar. 7, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN 2 and Deportes

v. Canada, Mar. 8, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN 2 and on delay Deportes (9 Mar 7:00am)

@ South Africa, Mar. 9, 3:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes/ESPN (11 Mar 3:00am)

Clemens Ready

2006-03-05T18:30:00.000-08:00

Clemens is throwing in spring training and is, apparently, ready to go. This is good news not only for team USA but also for the Astros and anyone else who might be trying to sign him for the season since his decision about whether to play the regular season is likely to be made based largely on how he feels and throws during the Classic.

WBC Preview: South Africa

2006-03-05T16:50:00.000-08:00

The big Pool B underdog. At this point I think they are just hoping not to look like a repeat of China’s Pool A failure. South Africans in general are much more interested in Cricket than Baseball, so if the team can have a little success it would mean a lot to those who are fans of the sport.

Notable Players:

No one in particular. I am sure there will be a player or two that are more interesting to watch than the rest. I don’t know who they are and I am not sure that we will have time to spot them in the tournament, so I won’t bother guessing.

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Canada, Mar. 7, 9:00 PM EST. On delay Deportes (10:30pm); ESPN 2 (8 Mar 2:30am).

@ Mexico, Mar. 8, 9:00 PM EST. On delay Deportes (9 Mar 10:00am).

v. United States, Mar. 9, 3:00 PM EST. On delay Deportes/ESPN (11 Mar 3:00am).

WBC Preview: Canada

2006-03-05T16:19:00.000-08:00

Canada is the other team, aside from Mexico, that is has a legitimate chance to take Pool B’s second spot and advance to round 2 beside the US. In theory that competition should come down to one final game between the two, so the action should be interesting.

I happen to live a few miles from the boarder to British Columbia and know first hand that the youth programs—at least in the southern parts of BC—are first class. Canada, of course, has the Blue Jays and a few MLB players to spark its interest in the sport, but it still isn’t overwhelmingly popular. The Canadians do have a decent lineup and a few solid pitchers. Even the guys who aren’t major league players should be fairly talented so they might give us something interesting to watch.

Notable Players:

Jason Bay (CF) – The 2004 NL Rookie of the Year and improved in 2005. Likely 3^rd hitter.

Justin Morneau (1B) – Another young player who has been in the league for a couple of years. Hitting 4^th.

Matt Stairs (DH) – Stairs had a few top-notch years with the A’s in the late 90’s. He is a pretty decent hitter but is getting on the older side.

Paul Quantrill and Chris Reitsma (P) – Both of these guys are relievers. Both have had good and bad years but they have more experience against MLB competition than Canada’s starters.

Conspicuously Missing:

Eric Gagne (P) – Gagne is just now recovering from injury and is sitting out the Classic. He would have given the Canadians a few great innings in important spots if he was healthy, but his being missing is not likely to be devastating.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ South Africa, Mar. 7, 9:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (10:30pm); ESPN 2 (8 Mar 2:30am)

@ United States, Mar. 8, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN 2 & on delay Deportes (9 Mar 7:00am)

v. Mexico, Mar. 9, 8:00 PM EST, on delay Deportes (10 Mar 2:00am); ESPN (10 Mar 3:00am)

Puckett

2006-03-05T12:33:00.000-08:00

Kirby Puckett had a stroke today. Read about it here.

I have written about Puckett’s Hall of Fame election in a not entirely reverent way in the past. That said, Puckett was a hell of a ball player and it is a shame that his career was cut short. He falls short of many Hall of Fame standards largely because he was robbed of his last years and he probably deserves to be in the Hall.

I wish him and his family the best through this ordeal.

The Future of Livebloging

2006-03-05T00:50:00.000-08:00

After tonight I am not sure how many games I will be able to watch live (and therefore liveblog). I will do my best to hit as many games as I can and I will still offer my insight about the ones I have to watch after the fact. Sorry.

Korea @Japan -- Tokyo Dome

2006-03-05T00:45:00.000-08:00

If the last game was a consolation game than this one is a pride game. Ichiro wants to prove that Korea won't be able to beat Japan "in the next 30 years" and Korea, essentially, wants to show him up.

Could be interesting...

The Tokyo Dome looks packed for this one...

Japan's submarine pitcher is through the first inning cleanly...

The Japanese come up with a hit and a stolen base in the first. He moves to third on an out and they score on a ground ball single despite a nice stop by the Korean 2nd baseman. Early lead, 1-0...

A nice play by the Japanese 2nd baseman takes the Koreans down 1-2-3...

That ball teed-off by the Japanese shortstop Kawasaki. 2-0...

The announcers are arguing about pitch-count rules. We will discuss this later...

The Korean's get two hits in the 3rd and a hit-by-pitch loads up the bases, but they can't get enough to score. The announcers are discussing the Korean made "thundersticks" and wondering where the Anaheim Angels got ahold of so many in the '02 playoffs. They don't seem to realize that College football crowds had them well before that. The PAC-10 had to outlaw them after a while...

Japan doesn't do anything that inning. 2-0 through 3 innings. If Korea can pull out a little offense this is going to be a great game...

Korea doesn't have much in the 4th. Japan, however, has a few hits and bunts them to 2nd and 3rd with one out... a chopper to the shortstop leads to a close and hard play at home. He is called out (I would have marked him safe under the tag)...

Ichiro walks to load them up with 2 out... A diving catch from the Korean right fielder Lee saves at least a few runs and ends the inning...

2:25 PST: A hit and a hit-by-pitch get the Koreans going in the top of 5. A sac-bunt has runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. This is their chance to get into this game... A sac-fly and Ichiro's throw to third isn't quite enough to keep the runner on second. 2-1 and the inning is still going... a hit by pitch has Japan changing hurlers... still 2-1 after the new pitcher has a strikeout...

2:48 PST: A walk by the Korean pitcher does no harm and we are going into the 6th...

A clean, scoreless sixth for both sides...

3:14 PST: This game looks really even. Still 2-1 going into the 7th inning stretch...

Ichiro is hit by a pitch to leadoff...

Ichiro is hit by a pitch to leadoff... The announcers seem to have a theory that the Koreans, in a one run game in the 7th inning, are hitting Ichiro on purpose to lead off the inning. I doubt it greatly... Pitching change... Strikeout… Pop-out… Nothing Doing...

3:38 PST: The Koreans have a 2 run shot to take the lead in the 8^th… 3-2 Korea

Japan has nothing in the 8^th. One more chance…

Bunting with hopes of a hit with 1 out... no go... It is on Ichiro...

Korea wins 3-2...

That was a good game... I hope that both of these teams are competitive in the next round. It will be interesting to see how they do against the American team. I would like to see one of them advance to the semifinals.

As it stands we won't see the Asian teams for a while now, so I hope you got your fill...

ESPN Sabermetrics

2006-03-05T00:35:00.000-08:00

ESPN The Magazine has an article targeted to Fantasy players that makes nicely ill-informed use of Sabermetrics. Besides a number of ideas that are well thought-out but not placed in context—an explanation of various trades stands out, it fails to be explained in a way that is meaningful to fantasy players—there is this: “Research shows that… about 30% of all balls in play will fall for hits.” Given the context, any alert reader would read this as saying that any player hitting over .300 is just lucky and will likely hit, at best, .300 next year, less if that hitter has ever struck out. The article doesn’t even begin to discuss the existence of hitters who regularly, or always, hit over .300.

While it is nice to see Sabermetrics made mainstream, I really wish that use of them would be something close to well-informed.

Chinese Taipei @ China – Tokyo Dome

2006-03-04T17:32:00.000-08:00

This is effectively a consolation game, deciding 3^rd and 4^th place. However, because Taipei did well against the Korean team, it provides China with an opportunity to redeem itself and come out of the tournament looking like a somewhat competitive team on the Asian scale. That would give them something to work with for the Beijing Olympics.

If I had to guess I would expect Taipei to give up very few runs and win by a comfortable margin…

No connection problems for MLB.TV today...

The Taiwanese manage a (kind-of) hit in the first but are caught stealing. A walk adds another runner, but they do nothing with him...

China has a hit in the first and sac-bunt him to second. He is caught stealing

6:29 PST: Scoreless after 1...

A 1-out double in the 2nd for Taiwan... a succesfull steal has a runner on third with one down. Both teams are very aggressive right now. They want to win...

China gets out of it unscathed...

The action stays slow until another 1-out double n the top of the third for Taiwan. Lets see if they steal again... No. A flyball scores him from second. I think the Chinese centerfielder should have got to that one...

6:57 PST: Middle of third. 1-0 Taiwan...

China is looking to strike back with one out in the third. Look for more aggressive offense here... and a walk... and a strikeout. 2 down now... another strikeout and no runs score...

Taipei has a grand-slam to finish a 4th inning rally... 5-0 Taiwan...

China goes down quickly in their half of the 4th...

The announcer mentioned that China has been playing baseball since the "early 1800's." I find that hard to believe since baseball was very poorly defined until the 1850's. Whatever they were playing was likely more similar to Cricket or Rounders than to Baseball... I would like to hear more about it, though...

Action is slow until the top of the 6th. Taiwan tacks on a couple more runs on a walk a double and an error... now a HBP. 1st and 3rd, 2 down... Another HBP loads 'em up...

8:13 PST: China with a leadoff double. Looking to save some honor with a few runs here... an out and a walk... They pick up two...

Game over... 12-3... The Chinese didn't have much, there. They have to be a little embarassed, not only that they couldn't be competitive but that they couldn't keep the game in control...

Korea & Japan later...

WBC Preview: Mexico

2006-03-04T15:58:00.000-08:00

Baseball enjoys a reasonably strong popularity south of the boarder and has for quite some time. The first professional baseball league in Mexico was established in 1925 it is now a triple-A minor league. Attendance in Mexico has leveled out and growth of the sport has essentially stopped but the sport retains much of its popularity, particularly in the northern part of the country. In addition to baseball played in Mexico, the country has several highly successful major league players who provide Mexican fans with plenty to watch.

In fact, nearly the entirety of the Mexican lineup boasts at least a decent stint of play in MLB. Their pitching, however, is their strong point with a few above average major leaguers and some young talent. They have a very solid chance at picking up the 2^nd advancement from Pool B after the United States. Canada will be vying for it too, however.

Notable Players:

Vinny Castilla (3B) – Mexico’s big veteran will serve as the leadoff man. Expect Castilla’s performance to have a big effect of the success of Mexico’s offense.

Jorge Cantu (2B) – The young second baseman is likely to fill the three spot in the Mexican lineup.

Erubiel Durazo (DH) – Injury ridden, but a very good player when he is not.

Pitching – Like him, him, him and, most interestingly, Francisco Campos, a promising minor leaguer.

Conspicuously Missing:

Nobody in particular.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ United States, March 7, 4:00 PM EST. ESPN 2.

v. South Africa, March 8, 9:00 PM EST. On delay at 10:00 am, March 9 - ESPN Deportes.

@ Canada, March 9, 8:00 PM EST. Deportes (10 Mar 2:00am); ESPN (10 Mar 3:00am).

Japan @ Chinese Taipei – Tokyo Dome

2006-03-04T00:27:00.000-08:00

A win for the Japanese tonight would close China and Taipei out of the running for advancement making tomorrow’s games, essentially, a Pool A Championship game and a consolation game… neither game would be imperative since the top two teams from each pool advance.

By now we have a pretty good idea of the skill levels of these teams relative to each other and we can say with some confidence that Japan should win this game. It is safe to say that Taipei’s defense is much better than the one Japan saw last night against the Chinese, but we also shouldn’t expect much from the Taipei offense. I am personally hoping for a low scoring game since that would indicate that tomorrow’s Korea/Japan outing will be an interesting match-up…

The MLB.TV broadcast is clean the first time this time. I will continue to keep you updated on my experience with MLB.TV during the Classic and otherwise...

1:04 PST: Chu-Chien Hsu, starter for Taipei, throws the first pitch to Ichiro. Ball... Ichiro ropes one to the second baseman...

Nishioka gets a hit, moves to second on check swing contact and steals a base after a Matsunaka HBP… Tamura makes the stolen base moot with a shot to left center field. 3-0 Japan…

A walk and a stolen base fail to yield another run. Taipei needs to strike quickly if they are going to try to win this game...

Daisuke Matsuzaka is pitching for Japan…

Matsuzaka beans one and walks one with 1 out…

1:28 PST: Matsuzaka induces an easy double-play. Nothing hurt...

Taipei makes a pitching change for the second, hoping to get the game under control. Yao-Hsun Yang, the replacement, gives up a leadoff hit. Japan is looking to bunt him over... success...

Ichiro got a hit putting runners on first and third (1-out) and a walk loads the bases for Fukudome...

Fukudome has the sac-fly. Ichiro stays on second. Two men on for Matsunaka... Matsunaka pops that way up for the third out...

Daisuke Matsuzaka gave up another pari of hits. This guy is supposed to be the best pitcher in Japan. He does seem to be more agressive and pitch in a more dominant style than the other guys we have seen, but he is struggling to make easy innings...

A popped-up bunt gives him the first out of the second inning. That sacrifice/smallball style not paying off there...

He gets the second out but has the ball slip out of his hand in the windup--the resulting balk cost him a run... now he is out of the inning. Lets see if he controls the game a little better next inning. 4-1...

2:03 PST: Japan has a leadoff walk, followed by an out and a hit. They won't bunt here... after the second out they get a base hit to score a run. A bad throw puts runners on 2nd and 3rd for Ichiro...

Ichiro grounds out...

Apparently Daisuke Matsuzaka is throwing something called a gyroball, a Japanese invented pitch. Wikipedia says it is popular in Japan but I’m not sure how many of the other pitchers we have seen have been throwing it…

2:14 PST: That was a quick inning. Matsuzaka is at 46 pitches...

A leadoff walk for Japan in the top of 4, stolen base and grounder to the right side put a runner on third with 1 out for Matsunaka... fly-ball is to shallow to score the run. Another pop-up is out number 3...

Matsuzaka is in trouble again after giving up a leadoff hit and hitting the next batter with his pitch... He is through it safely and will not be back for the fifth inning since he ran out of pitches in the process. 5-1...

A mistake by the Taipei left fielder turns a 1 out Japanese single into a triple. A second single scores another run... a pair of well earned walks load the bases. Still 1 out... a balk on the new pitcher--before he threw his first pitch--puts a run in and advances the other two runners... two runs score on a single... potential double-play ball but Nishioka makes a hard takeout slide and is holding his arm... Matsunaka singles (off the wall). First and third... a walk and a hit score a pair of runs and the third out is made on the bases. Score is 11-1 in the middle of the 5th. We are in (7 inning) mercy rule territory...

No injury on the takeout slide as Nishioka is still in defensively...

Quick inning by the new pitcher Yabuta, including a pretty flashy catch in foul ground in left field...

A couple of pinch-hitters get hits for Japan and a ground-out scores yet another run... 12-1 going into the bottom of the 6th. If Taipei doesn't make it a 9 run game by the end of the 7th this game will be in the books...

Taipei has a little offensive spark and picks up two. We have a 9 run game going into the top of 7...

Japan wins in the middle of 8... advances to the next round...

China @ Korea – Tokyo Dome

2006-03-03T17:35:00.000-08:00

Everything went as expected last night and Korea is looking to clinch their advancement with a win tonight. For China, however, this is the first real game, the first they have any actual chance to win. They will have to be flawless to beat the Koreans but if they can pull it off they will stand a decent chance of edging out Taiwan and advancing to round 2. Odds, however, are definitely on the Korean side.

Also, after Japan’s trouncing of the Chinese last night it should be interesting to see how they compare to the rest of the Pool. This should give us a good idea of what to expect in the Korea/Japan game.

Korea scored in the first...

I would love to be liveblogging this game but MLB.TV can't keep its broadcast running. I haven't seen so much as a pitch of this game so far... I am waiting on MLB.TV's service line right now, updates forthcoming...

I've been on the line for 15 minutes, still no answer. I am getting radio, however, but that offers little consolation...

20 minutes... now I get video but it is a dead air broadcast... and I have stopped getting updates via gameday so the score could be anything...

Video up! Still no answer from MLB-service but I am temporarily appeased... 1-0 with 2 down in the top of three...

Leadoff double for Korea in the 3rd, threatening to score a second run... they bunt him to third...

6:56 PST: A big double makes it 2-0... I got an answer and was offered an apology and promised that the broadcast would be clean in 20 minutes... I would be angry, but it is clean already... I just hope we don't have this problem for the whole Classic...

A HUGE home-run, 4-0...

Another hit. Right now, I have to figure Taiwan is going to cream this Chinese team, too. I will be interested to see how they do against Japan, though...

A hit and an error on an infield dribbler (it was a tough play... I am questioning the error call) load the bases, two outs...

No runs score there... I don't want to harp on the Asian smallball tactics too much but I suspect that the bunt might have cost Korea a run in that last inning...

The announcers are noticing the skills of Korean shortstop Jin Man Park. I, too, have been impressed, all around by the Korean infield in the two games I have seen them in. China goes down in order…

7:20 PST: China is on a new pitcher in the 4^th and he gives up a hit that aggressive base-running turns it into a double… no bunt, this time… instead a ground ball to the right side advances the runner, 1 out…

A deep sac-fly scores the run...

7:27 PST: Min Han Son is leaving after three. He threw 49 pitches. Myung Hwan Park replaces him and issues a walk…

After the walk: a hit by pitch, then a ground out to advance both runners. But Park strikes out two to close the inning 5-0…

7:53 PST: The action has settled and we are going into the bottom of 6 still 5-0...

Korea comes up with a leadoff hit and a past ball moves him to second... yet again a groundout advances him to 3rd...

A bunt for a hit... 1st and 3rd with 2 out...

2 more hits score 2 more runs... still only 2 outs... This is starting to look like the Japan game...

The Korean pitchers are really awesome. They struck out two in the 7th (8 in this game) and have yet to give up a run in the tournament...

One of the announcers just put it right on the nose... the owners are upset about the Classic because they don't have control... as the Koreans add another run on a triple in the 8th (none out)...

The Koreans fall 1 run short of mercy-ruling the Chinese in the 7th...

8:37 PST: The Chinese pick up a consolation home-run in the 8th, 9-1...

The Korean DH Seung-Yeop Lee hit his second home-run of the game (this one even went further than the last) in the 8^th. 10-1…

A one out double. We might be looking at a mercy rule here... nope...

1...2...3... done, 10-1.

Tune in again later for the Japan/Taipei game.

Jose Guillen Injured

2006-03-03T12:38:00.000-08:00

Jose Guillen, who was already sporting an injured shoulder, now has hurt a tendon in his wrist and will be out for the next three months. The National's season is growing injury ridden before it even starts.

Tokyo Dome Dimensions

2006-03-03T12:03:00.000-08:00

During last nights Japanese slugfest the announcers referred to the Tokyo Dome as a “small ballpark” but neglected to give dimensions. I couldn’t spot distance markings on the fences but I did find them listed here. 328 ft. on the foul lines, 361 ft. in the power alleys and 400 ft. at dead center. These dimensions are about the same as Angel Stadium’s present configuration. The power-alleys are a bit shorter than a lot of parks but it is not an undersized park.

Japan @ China - Tokyo Dome

2006-03-03T01:18:00.000-08:00

ESPN 2 is just finishing up with their replay of the previous game and Pool A favorites, Japan, are about to play their first game.

Expect Japan to win this game without too much trouble. What we want to watch, here, is specifics in the performance of each team… This is where we get to gauge China’s chances of upsetting Taipei and Korea, earning advancement. We also get a chance to see Japan’s team for the first time—even though they aren’t exactly up against the best team in the tournament, we can get our first idea of their chances in the later rounds…

Tommy Lasorda is throwing out the first pitch…

1:38 PST: Chenhao Li throws his first pitch to Ichiro... strike...

More bunting, this time looking for a hit...

China coming up now. If they can strike quickly and stun the Japanese than this will be a very interesting game...

The Chinese have the first hit of the game and aggressive base-running (and a missed tag) make it a double... the aggressive style revealing itself again...

No go for China in the 1^st after having runners on 1^st and 2^nd. By the way, the MLB.TV broadcast is much better this time around. I am getting the full experience that ESPN 2 has (Cialis ads and all) and having no connection problems…

1:59 PST: A double for Japan to leadoff the second, the drive down the line is a little more convincing as a double than China’s. A weakly hit ball moves the runner to third with one out...

Shallow sac fly scores him. There was some talk of the Chinese arms being weak and Japan was ready to take advantage of it…

2:10 PST: China is done quickly in the second with two strikeouts and a flyball to Ichiro. The game is settling…

An error on the Chinese third baseman gets Japan started in the 3rd... a wild pitch on a bunt attempt moves him to second and they are still looking to bunt him over to third with Ichiro up next... no. Swinging away now and a deep flyball moves the runner along...

Ichiro hits a grounder to second... it is enough to score a second run for Japan. Job done 2-0...

A bloop hit for China in the 3rd but it doesn't do any good... Something interesting, the Japanese have 2 runs on 1 hit so far (and only 2 baserunners). They are moving the runners very effectively...

2:34 PST: Matsunaka has his second double of the game (this one was almost caught by the left fielder)... didn't I tell you to watch this guy...

2:47 PST: A leadoff hit for China in the 4^th and a homerun to tie it up! This is going to be interesting…

A strike-out and a flyball end the inning after the 2-run shot by Wei Wang...

Japan's #9 hitter took a fastball in the thigh to bring up Ichiro with 1 out… and stole a base…

Ichiro has an infield hit to the shortstop. It was played fairly well but Ichrio beat it out. First and third, 1 out...

That one was bombed, 3-run shot and Japan has space again... Tsuyoshi Nishioka...

And a second, this one from Fukudome. 6-2 and Matsunaka is up again...

3:13 PST: Matsunaka grounds out and Tamura is fanned to end the huge inning...

China has a leadoff hit, a fielder’s choice and another hit. Runners on first and second… Japan’s Uehara is at 58 pitches and gives up a shallow blooping fly for a third hit, loading the bases...

A double-play gets him out of the inning and ends his start at exactly 65 pitches. Uehara was on today, only 12 of his pitches went down as balls…

3:42 PST: 2 more extra-base hits—including a leadoff triple—a single, a balk, an error and a wild pitch make the score 9-2 in the top of 6. Japan was moving runners well earlier, now they are just teeing off. Ichiro, however, grounded into a fielder’s choice…

A Matsunaka walk and a Tamura home run puts us at 11-2 and dangerously close to the 10-run/7-inning mercy rule…

4:07 PST: Japan failed to make the mercy rule happen in the 7th, but they make quick work of China and are at bat again...

Leadoff single and an airmailed throw from shortstop put the runner on 2nd, Ichiro is up again...

He drives in the run with a deep flyball that is dropped in centerfield, then scores one of his own on a triple from Nishioka...

4:27 PST: China still can't figure a way to get an out. It is now 17-2...

A double-play and an Ichrio ground-out end the inning at 18-2. Three outs will now end the game an inning early unless China manages 7 runs first...

4:40 PST: Done in 8. 18-2... China looked like they might stay in it for a while, but once the starting pitcher was out we got basically the game we expected...

Background Music at the Tokyo Dome

2006-03-02T22:00:00.000-08:00

Watching the Korea/Chinese Taipei game on MLB.TV, I didn't get any advertisments... instead I got clips of the scoreboard and the warm-ups between innings. Because of this I got to listen to the music played between innings:

I already mentioned that Queen was playing between the first and second innings. Other music I noticed includes Enya, Fleetwood Mac, and a lovely rendition of Take Me Out to the Ballgame recorded in a Japanese accent. I also noticed another ballpark classic, John Fogerty’s Centerfield, late in the game…

The more we are different, the more we are the same.

Korea @ Chinese Taipei – Tokyo Dome

2006-03-02T18:20:00.000-08:00

WBC pre-game is on now

The game is live on ESPN Deportes and will re-air on ESPN 2 at 1:30 am EST. There is also Gameday Box Score and Play-by-Play running at WorldBaseballClassic.com if you don't get Deportes and you aren't interested in watching the tape-delay broadcast. MLB.TV is also streaming the game (and all the others) live… $9.99 buys you the whole tournament—as does a regular MLB.TV subscription.

The game starts in 10 minutes...

...The stands at the Tokyo Dome don’t look that full—and the cheering suggests that the largest group of fans are rooting for the “home team” Chinese Taipei…

Got to give them credit though, they know how the cheer, and—getting a good look at behind home plate and the baselines now—there aren’t that many empty seats…

Sachio Kinugasa threw out the ceremonial first pitch… ball...

6:33 PST: The first World Baseball Classic is underway!...

Leadoff man on base for Korea after an E on the second baseman…

And a bunt to move him to second. Already seeing the Asian small-ball…

6:40 PST: The Taipei pitcher En-Yu Lin gets out of the inning with a couple of K’s. the second had the Korean hitter falling over. He is throwing about 140-143 km/hr (mid-to-upper 80’s)…

Queen’s We Will Rock You is playing in the background…

Korea’s starting pitcher is Jae Seo, he is also throwing in the 80’s, he makes quick work of the Taipei batters and 3B Dong Joo Kim makes some nice plays, 0-0 after 1…

Korea is on base again with a leadoff double... nothin' doin...

7:10 PST: Taipei threatened to score in the 2^nd with a hit and a walk—runners on 2^nd and 3^rd 2 out—but can’t capitalize…

After struggling with my MLB.TV (getting disconnected every minute or so) I found that ESPN 2 is currently showing the game—contrary to MLB.com and WorldBaseballClassic.com information. Much better… I will let you know if my experience with MLB.TV and the Classic gets any better.

I haven’t had any trouble watching spring training games on my subscription, however…

7:20 PST: The English announcers are commenting that they are surprised at the control shown by the pitchers… I thought that was what we were supposed to expect from this game—two strong pitching teams and Taipei banking on holding Korea to as few runs as possible to make up for their weak offense. So far so good, scoreless through 3.

I seem to be getting a Japanese broadcast from MLB.TV now… hmmm…

Taipei on the bases again with 1 out in the bottom of the 3^rd… Another sac bunt… no help.

7:40 PST: Running much better now... they have removed the voice track altogether now... it is about two pitches behind the cable broadcast.

Top of four... this is where pitch counts start to get interesting.. Taipei is up to 50, and issues a leadoff walk...

Dong Joo Kim is really taking rips at the ball... he struck out in his first at bat and hit a chopper to third just now, moving the runner to second. It looks like if he gets a hold of one it will be smoked...

RBI double by Korea’s catcher (Hong) and the Taipei pitcher is through his 65 pitches… too bad, he won’t be able to play with the rosin bag anymore. Now Taipei’s offense has to figure out how to score some runs…

Korea's pitcher is done (taken out with 61 pitches) with two outs in the 4th... he is replaced with a sidearm guy (another Kim)... he gets out of the inning after a long AB...

8:17 PST: Another sac-bunt by Korea after a leadoff hit... and a smoked double off the LF wall has another RBI... I am guessing that one scores the runner whether he is on first or second...

A good rundown and catch by the Taipei CF ends the inning, 2-0 Korea...

8:32 PST: Doon Joo Kim, the wild swinging Korean 3rd baseman, just dove awkwardly into first base and tweaked his left shoulder... I have seen a couple other hitters dive into first base. It is generally accepted that it isn't any faster to do so. Kim came out of the game and a pinch runner came in for him... the pinch runner, another Kim, stole second...

Hong, the guy who hit the first RBI double, picked up another hit, putting runners on first and third with one out but a double play after the pitching change finishes the inning…

8:48 PST: A couple of interesting things here. 1) Taipei, down two runs and with the #3 hitter up, played the sac-bunt after a leadoff hit. 2) The Koreans are bringing out their pitcher—who is throwing well—after 29 pitches so that they can pitch him again tomorrow...

9:10 PST: 7^th inning stretch (Take Me Out to the Ballgame). The game has settled down… besides the error in the 1^st and a mistake by the Korean pitcher on a come-backer in the 6^th. Still 2-0 Korea… if Taipei’s weak offense doesn’t figure something out quick they are likely out of the running for advancement to Round 2...

Chan Ho Park is in for the Koreans and through the 7^th quickly…

Jong Beom Lee hit his second big double of the night for the Koreans, this time leading off the inning…

9:23 PST: Aggressive play style costs Korea, there, as an attempted squeeze bunt gets by the bat and a runner on third (with 1 out) gets picked-off badly…

Taipei is down to one last chance...

A good stop by the Korean shortstop to save a run and pick up the last out of the game…

Korea wins 3-0

About what we expected from Taipei… good pitching but no offense. This all but puts them out of the running for advancement.

World Baseball Classic Intro

2006-03-02T17:39:00.000-08:00

I want no whining about this not being a real competition here. I know some key players are out—Pedro and Vlad, etc…—but get over it. Do you think a (soccer) World Cup country has never missed a key player due to injury? They have, almost every time it is played. MLB clubs miss the playoffs all the time because of injuries… this is nothing new to sports kids…

I know Vlad would not likely have missed this—bereavement or no—if it had the status that World Cup soccer has and, because it doesn’t have that status, I know there will be no rioting in the streets of New York if the US wins. Some of the other countries might have quite a celebration though…

This is the first time that anything resembling a legitimate International Baseball Champion will be named. It isn’t going to be perfect, but you will almost certainly learn something interesting and next time will be a little better, especially if we Americans are out for revenge. So sit down, watch and enjoy.

Pedro Out

2006-03-02T10:12:00.000-08:00

Pedro Martinez says his arm isn’t ready and is dropping out of the Classic. As far as I know he still expects to be healthy for opening day.

Game Coverage

2006-03-02T09:50:00.000-08:00

I will be live-blogging the games tonight…

Since this is not my job I don’t know if I will be able to keep up on this through the whole tournament, but for now you can expect me to be logged in and posting as the games are happening. And have no fear, if I fall behind and miss a few live broadcasts I will still watch the games and provide delayed coverage.

If you don’t have ESPN Deportes (or MLB.TV) and want to watch the delayed ESPN 2 broadcasts as though they were live you should not check the site until you have done so.

WBC Preview: China

2006-03-01T18:34:00.000-08:00

Chinese baseball is essentially in its infancy but is growing quickly into a competitor—at least for the Taipei team. The team has been training specifically for the Classic since January and is hoping that the extra preparation will give enough of a boost to put then in the running for advancement to the second round.

Don’t expect too much of a show in their first game against Japan… they have very little chance of winning that and will likely be using it as a warm-up for the Korea game which they have a slightly better shot at. The Chinese do have a decent chance to beat the Taipei team if they play well, but their primary focus will probably be on taking advantage of the high level of competition and building a national interest in their program. If they keep the games close they should be happy with their outing.

Notable Players:

No one in particular… most of these guys are presumably at about the same level. If the team succeeds it is going to be because of overall consistency and those extra months of training they put in as a group. There may very well be stand-out players in this tournament, but it is tough to say who we should watch for special performances… other people seem to be guessing Sun Lingfeng (CF) and Chen Zhe (1B).

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Japan, March 3, 4:30 am EST, ESPN 2

@ Korea, March 3, 9:00 pm EST, ESPN Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (12:30 am, March 4)

v. Chinese Taipei, March 4, 9:00 pm EST, ESPN Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (2:00 am, March 5)

No Guerrero

2006-03-01T16:45:00.000-08:00

Vlad Guerrero is officially out of the Classic now. The former MVP had a few deaths in the family this week and has decided he’s not up for international competition right now.

Best wishes to him.

Spring Training is On

2006-03-01T12:23:00.000-08:00

Colorado @ White Sox is 0-0 in the bottom of 2.

There are also a number of exhibition games in progress. A lot of universities playing MLB teams—Detroit is tied with Florida Southern College in the bottom of 9—see the scoreboard for all these games here.

Update: Detroit just beat FSC (1 run in the bottom of the 9th).

Clemens to Sign with Astros?

2006-03-01T10:04:00.000-08:00

If Gammons is right he will sign on May 1 and his first start will be in early June. The partial season would—supposedly—provide the old man with enough rest to keep him strong throughout the season.

via Pinto

Owner Support

2006-02-28T22:06:00.000-08:00

George Steinbrenner should take a leaf from this guy’s book. The article is a bit over dramatic though:

He's so gung ho that many of his stars are leaving camp in the next few days to join their respective teams…

…just like the rest of the owners? Anyway, the public support is good… nice to see owners doing something other than whining.

WBC Preview: Chinese Taipei (Taiwan)

2006-02-28T20:39:00.000-08:00

Taipei’s opening game against Korea—which, incidentally, is the first game of the tournament—is likely to be the deciding factor in their attempt to advance past the first round. Wins in any two games are enough to move on and, though they bear little hope of defeating the strong Japanese team, Taipei expects to handle the Chinese without too much trouble. So a win against Korea would make the island team very likely to advance while a loss would effectively ruin what chance they have.

Baseball in Taiwan gained its validity from a long stretch of wins in the Little League World Series—sixteen 1^st place and two 2^nd place finishes between 1969 and 1996. But the game is still in its infancy there relative to century-long popularity it has enjoyed in Japan and Korea.

Expect games with Chinese Taipei to be low scoring since their pitching staff is solid but the lineup is very weak.

Notable Players:

Chin-Feng Chen (OF) – Spent a few years in the Dodgers minor leagues but never made it to the majors for more than a few games a year. He is going back to play in Taiwan next season but is likely the best hitter on the roster.

Pitching Staff – Most of the best Taiwanese pitchers get exported to the Japanese and Korean leagues and have plenty of experience at the level of play they face in the first round…

Conspicuously Missing:

Chien-Ming Wang (P) – The 26 year-old Yankees starter won’t be on the team. The pitching staff will miss him, but expects to be the team’s strong points anyway.

Round 1 Schedule:

v. Korea, March 2, 9:30 pm EST, ESPN Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (1:30 am, March 3)

v. Japan, March 4, 4:00 am EST, ESPN 2

@ China, March 4, 9:00 pm EST, ESPN Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (2:00 am, March 5)

Order of Business

2006-02-28T18:44:00.000-08:00

This week marks the beginning of Baseball season. Spring training exhibitions started this afternoon with a pair of exhibition games, St. Louis v. Florida Atlantic University and Cincinnati v. Kia Tigers (a Korean league team). St. Louis won 6-1, scoring all 6 in the eighth inning, and Cincinnati got rocked by their Korean opponents, losing 12-4.

In any case, real MLB-on-MLB games open up tomorrow and the WBC will start late Thursday night. As a baseball blogger this means that now, until late October, is crunch time. This will be the first season I have blogged so I can’t make any promises but you can expect—starting yesterday—a steep increase in the number of posts here. I will do my best to link to and comment on everything worth the time.

Also, expect the WBC coverage to be heavy. I have added a section to the sidebar to archive posts on the Classic, it will stay there until the end of the competition…

Stay tuned.

WBC Preview: Korea

2006-02-27T21:31:00.000-08:00

Korea is probably Japan’s biggest competition in Round 1. The championship club team from the primary league for each Pool A country participated in an Asia Series in November, the KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) Champion Samsung Lions finished in 2^nd behind the Japanese entrant.

On the other hand Korea has a fairly large group of MLB players and prospects playing for them in the Classic. If they have a good game against the Japanese they can take the lead spot in the Pool and get themselves a little momentum and clout for the second round. They are looking to use the Classic to break their image as a secondary Asian power and establish themselves as on-the-level with the Japanese. Odds, however, are on a second place finish after Japan and a tough Round 2.

Notable Players:

Yong-Taik Park (CF) – Likely leadoff hitter and a great all-around KBO outfielder.

Chan Ho Park (P) – Inconsistent but often solid MLB veteran starter.

Dae-Sung Koo (P) – Currently with the Mets organization. He had a strong career in the KBO and in Japan before making the move to the states. Better as a reliever than a starting pitcher.

Byung-Hyun Kim (P) – Rockies (spot) starter. Put up good numbers for the Diamondbacks in his early 20’s and has dipped off in the last few years. He is still only 27 and his ERA last year was not bad for a mile-high pitcher.

Sun Woo Kim (P) – Also in Colorado right now... not as established as Byung-Hyun Kim but is a decent pitcher…

Also:

Jung Bong (P) – Reds (AAA)

Hee Seop Choi (1B) – Dodgers

Jae Weong Seo (P) – Mets

Shin-Soo Choo (LF) – Mariners (AAA)

Conspicuously Missing: None

Round 1 Schedule:

@ Chinese Taipei, March 2, 9:30 pm EST, ESPN Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (1:30 am, March 3)

v. China, March 3, 9:00 pm EST, ESPN Deportes & on delay ESPN 2 (12:30 am, March 4)

@ Japan, March 5, 4:00 am EST, ESPN 2

WBC Preview: Japan

2006-02-27T16:45:00.000-08:00

Until recently Japanese Baseball has been somewhat hostile toward the American game. The way I understand it the general idea of American baseball was reminiscent of Ty Cobb’s criticism of power hitters… their game—the bunt and the hit-and-run, the base advancing game—is dignified. They hit, we club, or something along those lines. When Hideo Nomo first came over he was widely criticized in Japan for the “selfish attitude” that prompted his move. It is easy to see how his dream of playing ball in America would be considered disrespectful to the Japanese organizations. Turns out Nomo’s success and popularity gave Americans a measured respect for the Japanese leagues. In turn, it also increased acceptance of the American style and set precedent for other pitchers and, eventually, position players to move to the U.S.

Coming into the WBC Japan has something to prove to baseball fans on this side of the pacific. One group—like 3^rd Baseman Iwamura—is setting out to prove that they personally can cut it in the American major leagues. These guys want to make their own trip to the states and see international play against MLB players as an opportunity to establish that their potential is not limited to a Japanese setting. Another chunk of players—like Nobuhiko Matsunaka, who missed a 2^nd consecutive Pacific League Triple Crown by a handful of batting average points last year— is setting out to prove that the game as it is played in Japan is as good as the one we know. These guys have no intention of moving and hope to use the Classic as a catalyst for an increased international respect for the Japanese Leagues.

I hope to see both groups succeed. The MLB stands to gain a lot from the inclusion of Japan’s best and, in turn, baseball as a whole would be better served if the Japanese leagues can build worldwide and widespread acceptance for themselves as Major Leagues. I don’t know, really, what to expect from these guys but, whether they win or lose, I expect to learn a lot from their games, especially in Round 2 when they are likely to meet the U.S. team.

Notable Players:

Ichiro Suzuki (OF) – Everyone is familiar with the Seattle outfielder who has amassed 1130 hits in five MLB seasons. It would be surprising if he doesn’t stand out as the team’s best position player.

Nobuhiko Matsunaka (DH/1B) – Probable cleanup hitter… won Pacific League triple crown in 2004 and missed a repeat by .007 batting average points… also led Pacific league in OBP 2005.

Pitchers – The staff is pretty strong in general. The team isn’t likely to lose much when the starting pitchers come out since many of the replacements—including Padres reliever Akinori Otsuka—have proven themselves to be equally capable.

Conspicuously Missing:

Hedeki Matsui – Would have been the 3^rd outfielder and 3^rd, 4^th or 5^th hitter. Instead the third OF will be hitting 7^th. This doesn’t necessarily expose a weakness in the lineup—they do have a couple of slugging hitters—but it does make them less well off than they otherwise might have been. Look to find out how much this really hurts them after the first round—if it is not much it will tell us a lot about the quality the Japanese Major Leagues.

Round 1 Schedule:

@ China, March 3, 4:30 am EST, ESPN 2
@ Chinese Taipei, March 4, 4:00 am EST, ESPN 2
v. Korea, March 5, 4:00 am EST, ESPN 2

No Comeback Kid

2006-02-27T12:35:00.000-08:00

Percival seems to be done… if so he retires tied for tenth on the all-time saves list. He would likely be pushed back to the 12 spot by the time he becomes eligible for election into the Hall of Fame.

Here is my previous work on relief pitchers in the Hall. Percival compares well to Sutter—more saves, but fewer years—but it is hard to tell from current patterns whether he will be elected or be dropped from the ballot in one year…

Japanese Training

2006-02-24T14:44:00.000-08:00

Spring training games for the Japanese Pacific and Central Leagues begin Saturday. JapanBall.com keeps up on this stuff fairly well, if you are interested.

Pythagorean Projections and Team Efficiency

2006-02-24T00:25:00.000-08:00

I ran across this Diamond Mind article on team efficiency today. The theory seems to make sense, that a team’s offensive efficiency hinges on two things 1) the ability of the team to convert hits into runs and 2) their ability to convert runs into wins. The method, however, seems flawed in its use of Pythagorean Projections. Diamond Mind wants to use deviations from the projections to tell us something meaningful about a team’s ability to “use its runs effectively.”

The exceptions are what interest us for this article, and we had a big one this year. The Yankees won 12 more games than normal for a team with a run margin of +89. On a run-margin basis, they were more like an 89-win team than the squad who led the AL with 101 victories. Since 1962, when the 162-game schedule was first used in both leagues, no team has ever been more than 12 games better than their Pythagorean projection.

We are intended to draw some kind of conclusion about the Yankees efficiency from this data. This use of these projections is far from standard and, I would say, completely meaningless.

Pythagorean Projections, statistically, are surprisingly accurate. Almost all franchises average around 3.2 to about 3.5 games off of their Pythagorean projections per season. In any one particular season the projections might be off as far as about 10% (1876 Athletics) but as the sample size grows—to say, the 19,120 games the Cubs have played in their history—we find that our projections get far more accurate. Over the course of Cubs history Pythagorean projections say the should have won 47 more games than they did, that puts the Pythagorean method a little less than a quarter of a percent from dead-on accurate…

The accuracy of Pythagorean Projections suggests that the relationship between runs and wins is a constant that the team has no significant control over. The year-to-year discrepancies are easily explainable by luck… patterns support this conclusion. As noted by Diamond Mind:

But 43 years of baseball history tells us that such large deviations are unusual and tend not to be repeated the following year.

We will arbitrarily define “large deviations” to be records that are better or worse than projections by 7 or more games. About 1 in 10 seasons fit this criterion, so we would expect repeats once in 100 seasons… I looked at 699 seasons from 6 teams (Cubs, Braves, Reds, Indians, A’s and Yankees) they totaled 6 repeats in “large variations.” These types of seasons simply don’t repeat more often than we would expect from shear chance.

As far as I can see there is no reason to suppose that either beating or failing to meet projections has any correlation to team ability. If we want to talk about team efficiency in terms of wins from runs we need to start with a theory about how teams affect this kind of efficiency and develop a stat that measures it according to that theory. As for me, I think any effect that might be discovered is probably negligible so I won’t waste my time.

The Worst Pitcher in the Hall of Fame

2006-02-21T16:05:00.000-08:00

The most recent Hall inductee, Bruce Sutter, has the distinction of winning the fewest games (68) and earning the lowest winning % (.489) among all Hall of Fame pitchers. Sutter, however, was inducted as a relief pitcher and his 300 saves are supposed to outweigh the flaws that kept him from starting (though the stat didn’t seem to help Lee Smith—career save leader—or Goose Gossage who also edges out Sutter’s save number, both pitchers were on the ballot this year). Sutter is also the first pitcher in the Hall to have never started a major league game; Rollie Fingers had the previous low at 37. Dennis Eckersley and Hoyt Wilhelm are the other two pitchers who got in primarily for their relief work.

The definition of a Hall of Fame relief pitcher is up for grabs right now, and Sutter’s selection marks the current low-end of the spectrum (Wilhelm has fewer saves, but also has 143 wins to mark it up). It will be interesting to see who the voting puts in over the next decade. There are 18 guys above Sutter on the career saves list and only two of them are in the Hall. John Wetteland, who compares favorably to Sutter, was dropped off the ballot after receiving only 4 votes this year. It is hard to see Jose Mesa (12^th on the saves list) in the hall, much easier to see Hoffman (2^nd) there.

In Sutter’s defense, it would be hard to spot him as the worst pitcher in the Hall… There are 8 inducted pitchers that don’t fit into the top-100 career wins list or the top-100 Win % list. 4 of them are the relievers we have been discussing (Fingers, Eckersley, Wilhelm and Sutter) here are the other four (there are 65 non-negro league pitchers in the hall, one of them is Ruth):

Jack Chesbro – 2.68 ERA, 198 Wins .600 W%

Rube Marquard – 3.08 ERA, 201 Wins, .532 W%

Dazzy Vance – 3.24 ERA, 197 Wins, .585 W%

Rube Waddell – 2.16 ERA, 193 Wins, .574 W%

A Classic Complaint

2006-02-20T23:18:00.000-08:00

The Orioles are upset about the large chunk of their roster—12 players in all—expected to participate in the World Baseball Classic next month.

If the Baseball world wants to successfully horn in on the international competition racket, which it does (and should), we are going to have to get used to letting players participate even if it isn’t the best thing for the club teams. Soccer deals with this every couple years, having key players miss actual games—games that count, not training games—to play internationally. It isn’t a terribly big deal… if there is a problem with a certain player (Felix Hernandez is a handy example) the team will work it out with the player or with the governing body. For the most part, however, expect the players who want to play—and are wanted by their country—to play.

The WBC website has a list of all players included on Classic rosters sorted by MLB club, if that interests you. There are a handful of teams that will be sending more than 12 players to the competition. The Mets have 19. The O's fall in middle of the pack, I would be suprised if they find any sympathy from the powers that be.